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China is experiencing a significant increase in coal power capacity, with 37 GW starting construction and 52 GW permitted in the first half of 2023. The report argues that most of these projects violate central government policies intended to limit coal to a supporting role for renewables, instead serving as bulk power generation. This trend, driven by energy security concerns and a desire to maximize carbon-intensive capacity before the 2030 peaking deadline, risks creating massive overcapacity and undermining China's carbon neutrality goals.

The report finds that while global coal power is generally declining and many existing plants have set retirement dates, China is experiencing a surge in new coal capacity. In 2022, China's new coal construction capacity grew by 38%, accounting for 68% of global construction. Despite this, the report suggests a coal-free future is possible if countries transition from broad commitments to specific plant retirement plans and close financial channels for coal.

The report finds that while the 'return of coal' did not materialize globally in 2022, the pace of retirements remains insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets. China is a major outlier, with its coal capacity in development increasing by 38% in 2022, while capacities in the rest of the world decreased by 20%. In the EU and UK, coal use saw a marginal 1% increase due to the gas crisis, but long-term trends remain downward. In Sub-Saharan Africa, coal projects persist despite funding shortages, though some successful just transition initiatives, such as the Komati plant retirement in South Africa, provide a potential model for the region.

The report indicates that while the global coal fleet grew by 19.5 GW in 2022, this was primarily driven by China, which now accounts for 68% of global developing coal capacity. Outside China, new coal proposals have collapsed by 84% since 2015. However, the current pace of decommissioning is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals, with a required average of 117 GW of annual retirements to achieve a 2040 phase-out. In Latin America, development has slowed significantly, though Argentina recently commissioned the Río Turbio plant and Brazil maintains plans for 1.4 GW of new capacity by 2031, despite current project stalls.

The report highlights a global divergence in coal energy trends: while OECD countries and much of the world outside China are reducing coal capacity and increasing retirements, China is significantly expanding its domestic coal pipeline. The document notes that one-third of global coal capacity has a set phase-out date, yet the overall pace remains insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets. Specific focus is given to Pakistan, where a shift toward local coal is increasing despite environmental concerns and international pledges.

The document reports that despite China's climate goals, investment in high-carbon coal power and blast furnace steel capacity remains high. While renewable energy and electric arc furnace (EAF) investments are growing, the continued approval of coal plants and high-emission steel projects creates significant stranded asset risks. The report argues that power shortages in provinces like Sichuan are caused by rigid grid management and fuel costs rather than a lack of capacity, suggesting that further coal expansion is unnecessary if grid reforms are implemented.

The document finds that while China has seen record clean energy installations and a decline in coal-fired power generation, government permitting for new coal plants and investments in blast furnace capacity accelerated in early 2022. This trend creates a risk of significant stranded assets—estimated at $8.5 billion for power and $15-22 billion for steel—and complicates the economic and political transition to low-carbon energy. The report highlights that power shortages in provinces like Sichuan were driven by rigid grid management and high fuel prices rather than a lack of capacity, and recommends reforming grid operations and including the steel sector in the emissions trading system.

The global coal fleet grew by 18.2 GW in 2021, primarily driven by China, which commissioned 25.2 GW of new capacity. While COP26 led to an increase in the number of plants with phase-out dates to 750 (550 GW), a significant gap remains to meet the 1.5C pathway, which would require retiring an additional 1,100 GW. Public financing for new international coal projects has largely ceased following pledges from G20 countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea. However, some nations continue to rely on unproven 'clean coal' technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) to extend plant lifetimes.

The report finds that while many countries are committing to end new coal power, China continues to expand its capacity, offsetting global declines. In 2021, global operating coal capacity increased by 18.2 GW, largely driven by China, which accounted for 56% of new operational capacity. Despite COP26 commitments, a significant gap remains between current plans and the 1.5°C warming limit, which would require decommissioning an additional 1,100 GW of capacity by 2030. The report also critiques 'clean coal' technologies like CCS as costly and ineffective distractions from renewable energy.

In 2020, a significant increase in coal plant development in China offset a global retreat from coal, leading to the first increase in global coal capacity since 2015. While China commissioned 38.4 GW of new capacity, the rest of the world saw a decline of 17.2 GW, driven by record retirements in the U.S. and EU27. South and Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Vietnam, announced plans to cut up to 62 GW of planned coal power due to falling renewable costs and financing difficulties. Despite these regional shifts, the report finds that global coal capacity remains far above the levels required to meet the IPCC 1.5 degree pathway, with an estimated 1,350 GW needing to be cancelled or retired.

In 2020, global coal capacity increased by 12.5 GW, driven by China's addition of 38.4 GW, which offset 37.8 GW of closures globally, primarily in the US and EU. While China saw a surge in new plans and construction as economic stimulus, other regions—particularly South and Southeast Asia—experienced significant project cancellations due to funding difficulties and the rise of renewables. The report highlights a widening gap between current global trajectories and the IPCC 1.5°C pathway, noting that substantial further closures are required to meet climate goals.

The report finds that while the global coal fleet grew by 34.1 GW in 2019, this was primarily driven by China, as the fleet outside China shrank for the second consecutive year. Most leading indicators of growth, including construction starts and pre-permit development, continued to decline globally. The report highlights a shift in financing, with Western commercial banks exiting project finance for coal, while Chinese public finance and Indian state-backed institutions continue to support new capacity. Despite these trends, the report argues that coal power use must fall by 80% by 2030 to align with the 1.5C warming limit of the Paris climate agreement.

The report finds that while global coal capacity increased by 34.1 GW in 2019—driven primarily by China—overall planning and construction are declining globally. It highlights a significant shift in the OECD, where the US and EU are accelerating closures, while Japan remains a major supporter of new coal projects both domestically and abroad. The document also notes a critical gap between current trends and the IPCC's requirement to reduce coal power by 80% by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The report finds that China is driving the growth of the global coal fleet, adding 42.9 GW between January 2018 and June 2019 while the rest of the world's capacity decreased by 8.1 GW. This growth is largely attributed to a provincial permitting surge between 2014 and 2016, which created a pipeline of projects that the central government has struggled to restrict. Despite a recent slowdown in new proposals and permits, China has 147.7 GW of capacity either under construction or likely to be revived. The report concludes that to keep global warming well below 2°C, China would need to reduce its coal capacity to 600 GW or less by 2030, a target that contradicts industry proposals to increase the national coal power cap to between 1,200 and 1,400 GW by 2035.

The report finds that most indicators of coal power expansion declined for three consecutive years as of 2018, driven by financial restrictions and phase-out policies. While China and India saw record lows in new permit applications, China remains a significant exception due to the secret resumption of previously shelved projects and a proposal by the China Electricity Council to raise the 2030 capacity cap to 1,300 GW. Globally, coal plant closures reached near-record levels, led by the United States. The report emphasizes that current operational coal plants already exceed the emissions limits required to meet IPCC targets of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.

The report finds that most indicators of global coal power growth declined in 2018, with significant drops in new construction starts and permits in China and India. While global retirements reached near-record levels, led by the US, China remains a major exception by resuming construction on previously shelved plants and proposing a high coal power cap for 2030. The document argues that current operating coal plants already exceed the limits necessary to meet IPCC global warming targets of 1.5°C or 2°C.

The report finds a general global decline in coal power growth, with significant drops in approvals and planning since 2015. While the US leads in record retirements, China shows a contradictory trend: despite a drop in new approvals, it has resumed construction on previously delayed projects and proposed increasing its national coal capacity ceiling to 1,300 GW by 2030. India is also seeing a decline in coal approvals as solar and wind energy become more cost-competitive. The report emphasizes that current coal capacity exceeds IPCC limits for 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets.

China is leading global utility-scale solar and wind expansion, with a massive pipeline of prospective capacity concentrated in six northwestern and northern provinces. However, the 'megabase' strategy faces significant hurdles, including rising curtailment and a transmission network that remains heavily reliant on coal. While the growth of green hydrogen and standalone battery storage offers a path toward local industrial decarbonization, there is a risk that these renewables will merely supplement rather than replace coal-based industries. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) continues renewable growth but maintains a role for fossil fuels, suggesting that transmission and market flexibility remain the primary bottlenecks for a full transition.