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The paper finds that while South African voters are willing to withdraw support from the incumbent African National Congress (ANC) due to poor performance, they rarely shift that support to opposition parties, often retreating into an 'independent' category instead. This lack of inter-party movement is driven by negative perceptions of opposition parties as exclusive or untrustworthy, as well as low levels of 'cognitive mobilisation' among the electorate, where many voters are 'ritual partisans' or 'apoliticals' rather than sophisticated 'apartisans'. Consequently, traditional sanctioning through elections is weak, and accountability manifests more as a 'selection' process where voters choose the best available option rather than punishing the incumbent.

The research examines whether boundary length or neomalthusian factors, such as shared rivers and water scarcity, better explain the incidence of international conflict. Using a dataset covering the Correlates of War period, the authors find that while boundary length shows a significant association with conflict in bivariate analysis, this effect disappears when neomalthusian willingness measures are introduced. The results suggest that neomalthusian factors are significant, though not dramatic, in their effects on conflict.

The report establishes a positive correlation between inclusive governance—measured by Voice & Accountability (VA) scores—and broad-based development, measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), across global, continental, and regional scales. It argues that accountable governance fosters political stability and consistent policymaking, which in turn sustains economic dynamism. Using Angola as a case study, the document illustrates how the repression of participation and human rights abuses can lead to the stagnation or reversal of human development outcomes. The report concludes that private sector companies have a financial and reputational incentive to support inclusive governance, anti-corruption policies, and civil society capacity building to mitigate 'above-ground risk' and secure long-term investments.