{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["bivariate analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'bivariate analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=bivariate+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-002511","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002511","title":"Elections and accountability in South Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2009-06","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper188.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper finds that while South African voters are willing to withdraw support from the incumbent African National Congress (ANC) due to poor performance, they rarely shift that support to opposition parties, often retreating into an 'independent' category instead. This lack of inter-party movement is driven by negative perceptions of opposition parties as exclusive or untrustworthy, as well as low levels of 'cognitive mobilisation' among the electorate, where many voters are 'ritual partisans' or 'apoliticals' rather than sophisticated 'apartisans'. Consequently, traditional sanctioning through elections is weak, and accountability manifests more as a 'selection' process where voters choose the best available option rather than punishing the incumbent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Voters in South Africa demonstrate a willingness to withdraw support from the incumbent party based on performance, but they are unlikely to transfer that support to opposition parties, which weakens the traditional sanctioning function of elections.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of voter trends between 1994 and 2009 reveals a general decline in electoral participation; specifically, the proportion of the eligible voting age population (VAP) voting for the ANC decreased from 53% in 1994 to 38.8% in 2009.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Partisanship in South Africa has fluctuated, with a significant rise in 'non-partisans' or 'floating voters' who make up roughly one-third to one-half of the electorate, including a substantial number of black African voters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Voter support for the ANC is influenced by economic evaluations, with a stronger correlation found for sociotropic evaluations (perceptions of the broader economy) than for egocentric evaluations (personal finances), although the poorest voters are more likely to rely on their own 'pocketbook' situation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The electorate is characterized by low 'cognitive mobilisation', with an average of only 10% of voters possessing both the political skills and motivation to engage with politics independently of party cues.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A large portion of the electorate consists of 'ritual partisans' (approximately 50%) who are mobilised by habitual party attachments rather than cognitive engagement, making them less likely to punish incumbents based on performance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Perceptions of party 'inclusiveness' act as a critical heuristic for voters; viewing the ANC as inclusive was a virtually necessary condition for support in 1994 and 1999, while negative or ambiguous images of opposition parties repel potential supporters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Because traditional sanctioning is weak, electoral accountability in South Africa functions more as 'selection accountability', where voters choose the best available option among perceived alternatives rather than voting specifically to punish the incumbent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","bivariate analysis","multivariate analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001156","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001156","title":"Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Shared Rivers, Boundary Length, and Conflict","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2003-03-01","source_url":"https://www.prio.org/publications/594","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research examines whether boundary length or neomalthusian factors, such as shared rivers and water scarcity, better explain the incidence of international conflict. Using a dataset covering the Correlates of War period, the authors find that while boundary length shows a significant association with conflict in bivariate analysis, this effect disappears when neomalthusian willingness measures are introduced. The results suggest that neomalthusian factors are significant, though not dramatic, in their effects on conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001156#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Neomalthusian factors, specifically shared rivers and water scarcity, are significant in their effects on international conflict, although the impact is not described as dramatic.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001156#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Boundary length is significantly associated with conflict in bivariate analysis, but this significance is lost when neomalthusian willingness measures are included in the analysis.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001156#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["water scarcity"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["bivariate analysis"]},{"id":"gga-000228","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gga-000228","title":"INTELLIGENCE REPORT","publisher":{"name":"Good Governance Africa","organization":"good-governance-africa"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://digitalmallblobstorage.blob.core.windows.net/wp-content/2023/06/IR-GPI-Investing-in-inclusive-governance.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report establishes a positive correlation between inclusive governance—measured by Voice & Accountability (VA) scores—and broad-based development, measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), across global, continental, and regional scales. It argues that accountable governance fosters political stability and consistent policymaking, which in turn sustains economic dynamism. Using Angola as a case study, the document illustrates how the repression of participation and human rights abuses can lead to the stagnation or reversal of human development outcomes. The report concludes that private sector companies have a financial and reputational incentive to support inclusive governance, anti-corruption policies, and civil society capacity building to mitigate 'above-ground risk' and secure long-term investments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gga-000228#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a clear global correlation between inclusive governance and broad-based economic development. Analysis of 188 countries shows that the top 25% of countries in Voice & Accountability (VA) scores average nearly 18% better on the Human Development Index (HDI) than the next highest group, and 35% better than the bottom half of countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gga-000228#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A positive correlation between VA and HDI exists across 53 African countries and within all UN-defined African regions. Eastern Africa shows the strongest positive correlation, while Middle Africa shows the weakest, largely due to Equatorial Guinea, where high oil rents maintain a higher HDI despite a low VA score.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gga-000228#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Angola, a shift toward repressing participation and increasing human rights abuses has contributed to the stagnation and reversal of human development. While VA and HDI rose in the first decade after the 2002 civil war, HDI began to stagnate in 2016 and has seen a slight reversal since 2018, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic and government crackdowns on peaceful protests.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gga-000228#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Private sector companies face significant operational and reputational risks when they fail to invest in inclusive governance. The report cites TotalEnergies in Mozambique as an example, where a failure to engage with local communities and invest in inclusive governance left the company vulnerable to insurgency attacks, necessitating the use of private militia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gga-000228#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To mitigate risk and support sustainable development, companies should expand their ESG and CSR efforts to include governance capacity building, transparent procurement processes, and the support of robust anti-corruption policies to reduce government rent-seeking behavior.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gga-000228#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["economic development","environmental, social and corporate governance","extractive industry"],"geography_discussed":["Angola","Mozambique","Equatorial Guinea","São Tomé and Príncipe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["bivariate analysis","case study"]}]}