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The document examines two distinct coal transitions in Germany: the economically driven, subsidy-supported decline of hard coal in the Ruhr area from 1958 to 2018, and the politically driven reduction of lignite in East Germany following the 1990 reunification. It evaluates the effectiveness of various structural policies, including investment support, retraining programs, and the creation of universities and infrastructure, while highlighting the risks of 'lock-in' caused by powerful industry networks. The study concludes that a 'just transition' requires multi-level governance, stakeholder participation, and a comprehensive approach that addresses not only employment and the energy system but also soft location factors and environmental renaturation.

The document argues that while the 1.5°C target is technically achievable, it is hindered by a lack of political will, insufficient institutional capacity in developing nations, and tensions between rapid decarbonisation and sustainable development goals. It highlights a significant investment gap, noting that the energy sector alone requires an additional $458 billion annually through 2030. The authors suggest that the traditional consensus-based international cooperation model is insufficient and advocate for 'coalitions of the willing' involving non-state actors and philanthropic support to build capacity in disadvantaged regions.

The document argues that current NDCs are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C and calls for transformative systemic change across all sectors. It provides a framework for governments to conduct national gap analyses, align their short-term plans with long-term global requirements, and implement disruptive innovations and governance reforms. Key recommendations include the urgent withdrawal of financial support for fossil fuels and the integration of climate-resilient planning into mainstream development and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) strategies.

The authors critique current integrated assessment modelling (IAM), specifically as used in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), for being biased toward market-based policies and global cost-optimization while ignoring local priorities and institutional barriers. They propose a 'fit-for-purpose' paradigm where models are selected based on stakeholder-defined questions and indicators, rather than fitting questions to existing models. This bottom-up approach is presented as essential for creating inclusive, voluntary low-carbon transitions, particularly in complex environments like cities and coastal areas. The brief suggests that this shift in process—not necessarily in the models themselves—is required for future IPCC reports and the Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake.

The report examines border carbon adjustments (BCAs) as a tool to prevent carbon leakage and incentivize climate ambition among trade partners. It analyzes past proposals in the EU and US, evaluates the legal constraints imposed by the WTO, and provides a comprehensive design framework. The authors recommend a BCA focused on imports of primary goods from energy-intensive sectors, utilizing global sectoral benchmarks for emissions and ensuring revenues benefit developing countries.

The document examines why the World Trade Organization (WTO) has seen limited legal action against fossil fuel subsidies despite their distorting effects on trade and investment. It analyzes five G20 support measures against the 1994 Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM), noting the specific difficulty of litigating consumption subsidies and the lack of transparency in subsidy notifications. To address these gaps, the paper proposes five reform avenues: technical assistance, enhanced transparency, credible reform pledges, a political declaration, and expanding the category of prohibited subsidies.

The report examines the discrepancy between the frequent WTO litigation of renewable energy subsidies and the absence of cases against fossil fuel subsidies. It argues that while political factors and the 'undercapture' of consumer subsidies by WTO law play a role, producer subsidies may still be actionable if sufficient evidence of adverse trade effects is provided. Through five G20 case studies, the authors highlight the difficulty of proving 'adverse effects' and the lack of transparency in subsidy notifications. The report recommends five avenues for reform: technical assistance, enhanced transparency, subsidy reform pledges, political declarations, and expanding the category of prohibited subsidies.

The document analyzes the 2017 closure of the Hazelwood Power Station in Victoria's Latrobe Valley, arguing that Australia's liberal market economy and majoritarian political institutions discourage long-term transition planning. It highlights how the closure was a commercial decision by Engie, which triggered reactive, large-scale assistance packages from both the Victorian and federal governments. The authors suggest that future 'just transitions' may require direct regulation of company obligations or the mobilization of institutional investors to pressure energy firms into adopting worker- and community-friendly closure policies.

The briefing identifies critical policy gaps in national coal transitions, emphasizing that a 'just transition' requires more than carbon pricing. It highlights the need to protect workers, build local economic resilience, avoid stranded assets, coordinate international trade flows, and secure financing. The document frames these managed transitions as a credible way for countries to increase their climate ambition within the UNFCCC framework.

The research examines the capacity of 'old industrial regions' (OIRs) to transition from declining mature industries to new growth paths. It utilizes the Regional Innovation Systems (RIS) framework to analyze 'lock-in'—functional, cognitive, and political—that hinders diversification. Using examples like Germany's Ruhr region, the paper argues that successful renewal requires 'regional branching' based on existing capabilities and a shift from top-down mandates to inclusive, bottom-up 'regional development coalitions'. It provides a typology of innovation support and warns against the 'regional resource curse' where renewable energy transitions may fail to create localized value.

The policy brief argues that border carbon adjustments (BCAs) are a more effective tool for addressing emissions leakage than traditional 'behind the border' measures like free allowances. It outlines a specific six-step design process: determining scope and coverage, calculating embedded carbon, determining the adjustment level, deciding revenue use, establishing an expiration date, and ensuring a fair and transparent process. The authors recommend that BCAs focus on primary goods in high-carbon sectors, apply only to imports to avoid WTO subsidy issues, and exempt Least Developed Countries. Revenue generated should be used to support environmental objectives and benefit affected developing countries. The brief also notes that while BCAs have been proposed in the EU and US, they are rarely implemented.

The briefing examines why fossil fuel subsidies have historically avoided challenges at the WTO, noting that WTO law often "undercaptures" these measures compared to renewable energy supports. Through a preliminary analysis of five G20 support measures, the authors find that consumption subsidies are particularly difficult to litigate due to a lack of specificity and difficulty in demonstrating adverse trade effects. To overcome these legal hurdles, the document proposes five reform avenues: technical assistance, improved transparency, political declarations, voluntary pledges with reporting, and the expansion of the ASCM's category of prohibited subsidies.

The Carbon-CAP project assesses the effectiveness and feasibility of consumption-based carbon accounting (CBCA) and demand-side policies to address emissions embodied in trade. By analyzing sectors such as food, buildings, and transport, the report identifies a suite of promising policy instruments—ranging from regulatory standards to carbon-intensive material charges—that could potentially reduce the EU's carbon footprint by up to 48% theoretically, or 4-10% when accounting for realistic behavioral responses by 2050. The study emphasizes that while production-based policies are standard, CBCA provides a critical macro-level indicator of an economy's carbon intensity and the responsibility of consuming nations for global emissions.

International researchers advocate for the strengthening of the EU ETS post-2020, emphasizing the need to address structural surpluses and ensure a full carbon price pass-through for basic materials like steel and cement to drive innovation and global policy alignment.

The report argues that achieving the EU's 2050 climate targets requires a broad portfolio of innovative production processes, material substitution, and efficiency gains. It proposes an integrated policy approach combining EU ETS reform—specifically the 'inclusion of consumption' to ensure carbon price pass-through—with public procurement and targeted innovation support, such as carbon contracts for differences, to overcome investment risks and the 'technology valley of death'.

The Czech Republic has seen a significant decline in coal production and employment since 1990, with the share of coal in primary energy production falling from 89% to 58% by 2014. The transition has been characterized by the privatization of mines, the imposition of ecological territorial limits in the North Bohemian Brown Coal Basin, and state-funded environmental remediation. While the broader economic transformation is viewed as successful, specific mining regions have faced social isolation and economic distress. Future energy policy aims to further reduce coal's share in electricity and heat, favoring nuclear power and renewables.

Spain has experienced a sharp decline in coal production and employment over the last two decades, driven by EU legislation, falling international prices, and the rise of renewable energy. While government plans successfully reduced coal's share in the energy mix, efforts to mitigate socioeconomic impacts in mining regions were largely ineffective, focusing too heavily on public infrastructure rather than the creation of sustainable alternative industries.

The document examines the Dutch coal experience, starting with the state-managed closure of domestic mines in Limburg (1965-1974) driven by the discovery of natural gas and political shifts. It details the social engineering and subsidies used to transition 75,000 workers, noting that while the region eventually diversified, the process was lengthy and marked by economic crises. The study then analyzes the 'return of coal' in the 1970s, where policy shifted toward imported coal to diversify energy security after the oil crises, leading to a lasting reliance on coal-fired power plants. It concludes that current climate targets and court rulings now clash with this path-dependency, creating a risk of stranded assets in modern coal plants.

The document analyzes Poland's attempt to make its coal sector profitable and competitive following the 1989 democratic transformation. While the sector achieved significant reductions in employment and production, it failed to reach overall profitability, with sector debt increasing from 5.45 billion PLN in 1993 to 22 billion PLN by 2000. The study highlights the role of trade unions in resisting change and the inefficiency of 'golden handshakes' compared to retraining programs. It concludes that for coal-dependent transition economies, improving sector efficiency is a critical interim step for emission reduction when immediate fuel substitution is not feasible.

The report analyses historical coal transitions in the UK, US, Spain, Poland, Czech Republic, and the Netherlands, concluding that proactive anticipation and comprehensive regional strategies are essential to avoid long-term socio-economic decline. It argues that the cost of failing to invest in a managed transition often exceeds the cost of the transition itself, as evidenced by high long-term social security costs and regional stagnation. Key recommendations include moving away from simple cash redundancy payments toward on-the-job retraining, diversifying regional economies through industrial clusters, and addressing the specific vulnerabilities of workers aged 35-45.