Achieving 1.5 degrees in the real world: Opportunities, barriers and trade-offs

The document argues that while the 1.5°C target is technically achievable, it is hindered by a lack of political will, insufficient institutional capacity in developing nations, and tensions between rapid decarbonisation and sustainable development goals. It highlights a significant investment gap, noting that the energy sector alone requires an additional $458 billion annually through 2030. The authors suggest that the traditional consensus-based international cooperation model is insufficient and advocate for 'coalitions of the willing' involving non-state actors and philanthropic support to build capacity in disadvantaged regions.

• Meeting the 1.5°C target requires an unprecedented scale of financial mobilisation, with the energy sector alone needing an estimated additional $458 billion annually until 2030.
• Current international cooperation is hampered by 'realpolitik', including the defection of the United States from the Paris Agreement and domestic populist movements that lead to the rollback of environmental policies.
• Many governments possess the political desire to act on climate change but are limited by a lack of technical, financial, and institutional capacity to implement a low-carbon transition.
• Rapid decarbonisation creates trade-offs with development goals in non-OECD countries, which face a much higher compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for solar and wind electricity generation than OECD countries to meet sustainable development scenarios.
• The traditional paradigm of international climate cooperation based on total consensus is limited because it moves only as fast as the least ambitious actor.
• Achieving the 1.5°C goal requires a shift toward multi-level governance and 'coalitions of the willing' that include non-state actors, such as industry and civil society, to compensate for national-level shortfalls.
• Philanthropic organisations and donor agencies are positioned to catalyse a new 'green revolution' by focusing on capacity building for policy analysis and implementation in developing countries rather than just GHG mitigation.

APA

Mehling, M., & Sagar, A. D. (2018). Achieving 1.5 degrees in the real world: Opportunities, barriers and trade-offs. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/P2933_CS_Mehling_Sagar_PRINT.pdf

Chicago

Mehling, Michael, and Ambuj D. Sagar. Achieving 1.5 degrees in the real world: Opportunities, barriers and trade-offs. Climate Strategies, 2018. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/P2933_CS_Mehling_Sagar_PRINT.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mehling |first1=Michael |last2=Sagar |first2=Ambuj D. |title=Achieving 1.5 degrees in the real world: Opportunities, barriers and trade-offs |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2018 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/P2933_CS_Mehling_Sagar_PRINT.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mehling2018achieving, author = {Mehling, Michael and Sagar, Ambuj D.}, title = {{Achieving 1.5 degrees in the real world: Opportunities, barriers and trade-offs}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2018}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/P2933_CS_Mehling_Sagar_PRINT.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }