Insights on the First 29 Long-term Climate Strategies Submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

This research paper analyzes the first 29 long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies (LTSs) submitted to the UNFCCC by June 2021. The authors identify common trends in midcentury targets, mitigation modeling, sectoral transitions, and governance frameworks, noting a significant shift toward net-zero goals and a broader focus on societal transformation beyond simple mitigation modeling.

• As of June 2021, 29 parties had submitted an LTS to the UNFCCC, representing 42 countries and 28.2% of global GHG emissions. These submissions include a diverse range of economies, from developed nations like the United States, Japan, and Canada to vulnerable states such as Fiji and the Marshall Islands.
• There is a growing global trend toward setting net-zero GHG targets, typically aimed for 2050, regardless of a country's economic development stage. Of the 29 analyzed strategies, 17 contain an explicit midcentury net-zero target, with 12 of those submitted in 2020 and 2021.
• Most LTSs utilize mitigation modeling and scenarios to illustrate pathways to their goals, often including a 'benchmark' or 'reference' scenario to show emissions if current policies remain unchanged. While some parties design jurisdiction-specific models, others use generic models like the TIMES partial equilibrium model.
• Energy sector transitions are central to all LTSs, with common convergence on increasing renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and implementing carbon pricing. Frequently cited technologies include solar, wind, green hydrogen, and biomass/biofuel/bioenergy.
• Land sector transformations are viewed as critical for both mitigation and carbon sequestration. Strategies often focus on sustainable forestry management, climate-smart agriculture, and natural carbon removal, though some parties express concern over the impact of these activities on vulnerable rural populations.
• Parties identify 'hard-to-abate' sectors—specifically agriculture, heavy industry, aviation, and shipping—as requiring significant technological breakthroughs and increased public and private research and development (R&D) investment.
• Technological carbon removal is increasingly seen as necessary to offset residual emissions. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is the most frequently mentioned technology, though some parties are exploring frontier options like direct air capture and storage (DACS) or biochar.
• LTSs are increasingly used to guide near-term action and inform Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Many strategies include economy-wide and sector-specific milestones for years prior to 2050, and some parties, such as France and the United Kingdom, utilize legally binding five-year carbon budgets.
• While most LTSs mention a 'just transition' to protect workers in high-carbon economies, the depth of detail varies. Some parties provide specific plans for retraining workers and changing school curricula, while others only address the concept notionally.
• Governance of LTSs varies in legal strength; some are bolstered by formal laws mandating the strategy or the target, while others lack legal backing. Most parties commit to regular review and revision cycles, frequently every five years to align with the Paris Agreement.

APA

Ross, K., Schumer, C., Fransen, T., Wang, S., & Elliott, C. (2021). Insights on the First 29 Long-term Climate Strategies Submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/insights-first-29-long-term-climate-strategies-submitted-united-nations-framework-convention-climate-change.pdf?VersionId=XrysiiZ_Zu57EgC.iPS8ng2NRkY5CHAm

Chicago

Ross, Katie, Clea Schumer, Taryn Fransen, Shiying Wang, and Cynthia Elliott. Insights on the First 29 Long-term Climate Strategies Submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. World Resources Institute, 2021. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/insights-first-29-long-term-climate-strategies-submitted-united-nations-framework-convention-climate-change.pdf?VersionId=XrysiiZ_Zu57EgC.iPS8ng2NRkY5CHAm.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ross |first1=Katie |last2=Schumer |first2=Clea |last3=Fransen |first3=Taryn |last4=Wang |first4=Shiying |last5=Elliott |first5=Cynthia |title=Insights on the First 29 Long-term Climate Strategies Submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=September 2021 |url=https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/insights-first-29-long-term-climate-strategies-submitted-united-nations-framework-convention-climate-change.pdf?VersionId=XrysiiZ_Zu57EgC.iPS8ng2NRkY5CHAm |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ross2021insights, author = {Ross, Katie and Schumer, Clea and Fransen, Taryn and Wang, Shiying and Elliott, Cynthia}, title = {{Insights on the First 29 Long-term Climate Strategies Submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/insights-first-29-long-term-climate-strategies-submitted-united-nations-framework-convention-climate-change.pdf?VersionId=XrysiiZ_Zu57EgC.iPS8ng2NRkY5CHAm}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }