Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest

The report projects that Illinois will face significantly hotter summers, increased flash flooding, and severe threats to agriculture if heat-trapping emissions continue to rise. Under a higher-emissions scenario, Chicago could see more than 70 days above 90°F per summer by the end of the century, and corn yields could decline by as much as 50% by mid-century. The document advocates for a transition to clean energy, including renewable electricity standards and a moratorium on new coal plants, alongside federal cap-and-trade legislation to mitigate these risks.

• Under a higher-emissions scenario, Illinois is projected to experience dramatically hotter summers toward the end of the century. Chicago specifically could see more than 70 days per summer with highs over 90°F and a month of days exceeding 100°F. Additionally, Chicago would face at least two heat waves per summer similar to the 1995 event and one every other summer comparable to the 2003 European heat wave.
• Rising temperatures are expected to degrade air quality in Illinois by increasing ground-level ozone and exacerbating small particulate pollution (soot). This poses significant health risks, particularly for the 12 counties already exceeding EPA health-based ozone standards, potentially increasing asthma attacks and respiratory conditions.
• Precipitation patterns in Illinois are projected to shift, with winters and springs becoming wetter and summers becoming drier. Heavy rainfalls (over two inches in one day) are projected to be 50% more frequent by the end of the century under a higher-emissions scenario, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
• Climate change threatens Illinois agriculture through heat stress, changing rain patterns, and the northward expansion of pests. Corn yields in Illinois could decline by as much as 50% by mid-century. Additionally, livestock such as dairy cattle and hogs may face near-permanent heat stress during average summers toward the end of the century under high-emissions scenarios.
• Water levels in the Great Lakes, particularly Lake Huron and Lake Michigan, are projected to decline due to increased evaporation and decreased lake ice. Under a higher-emissions scenario, levels could fall between one and two feet by the end of the century.
• Illinois is the sixth largest producer of global warming emissions in the U.S., with 85% of emissions coming from energy use, primarily electricity generation and transportation. The report suggests a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants without carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the expansion of combined heat and power (CHP) and public transit.

APA

Fitzpatrick, M., Freese, B., Wadsworth, B., & Lamm, R. (2009). Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-change-illinois.pdf

Chicago

Fitzpatrick, Melanie, Barbara Freese, Bryan Wadsworth, and Rouwenna Lamm. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-change-illinois.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fitzpatrick |first1=Melanie |last2=Freese |first2=Barbara |last3=Wadsworth |first3=Bryan |last4=Lamm |first4=Rouwenna |title=Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=July 2009 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-change-illinois.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fitzpatrick2009confronting, author = {Fitzpatrick, Melanie and Freese, Barbara and Wadsworth, Bryan and Lamm, Rouwenna}, title = {{Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2009}, month = jul, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-change-illinois.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }