Impacts and risks from climate change on trade infrastructure

The report examines the vulnerability of global trade infrastructure to climate change, highlighting that maritime, land-based, and air transport are all exposed to acute and slow-onset hazards. It identifies critical 'chokepoints' in global supply chains, particularly for food and raw materials, and notes that current adaptation efforts by governments and businesses are insufficient. The document argues for a systemic, global approach to climate-proofing trade infrastructure to prevent catastrophic economic losses and support the low-carbon transition.

• Global trade is highly dependent on maritime chokepoints, with 55% of internationally traded maize, wheat, rice and soybeans passing through at least one such point. Disruptions at these hubs, including coastal and inland infrastructure in the US, Brazil and the Black Sea, can lead to supply shortages and price spikes.
• Maritime ports are significantly exposed to climate risks; an assessment of 1,340 ports found that 86% are exposed to more than three climate and other natural hazards, and 40% face extreme maritime conditions that disrupt operations. Ports in Japan, the US West Coast, Central America, New Zealand, Taiwan, and mainland China are particularly exposed to multiple hazards.
• Land-based transport infrastructure is vulnerable due to its fixed spatial coverage. A global assessment indicates that approximately 27% of all road and railway assets are exposed to at least one climatic or natural hazard, with 7.5% exposed to 1-in-100-year flood events. Japan and China face the highest exposure to multiple hazards.
• Air freight infrastructure faces risks from extreme temperatures and precipitation. High temperatures can damage tarmac and reduce aircraft lift, with 10% to 30% of annual flights departing during peak temperatures potentially requiring weight restrictions at 19 major airports. In Europe, two-thirds of coastal and low-lying airports are forecast to risk runway flooding by 2090.
• Climate change is creating new trade opportunities while threatening existing ones; the Arctic Sea is expected to be ice-free before 2050, potentially reducing voyage lengths between Asia and Europe by up to 40% compared to the Suez Canal, though the route remains unpredictable.
• There is a significant gap in adaptation readiness among businesses and governments. Only about 25% of companies have assessed climate risks to their supply chains, and only 20% have plans to implement adaptation measures. In the US, China, and Taiwan, only 11% of suppliers are fully prepared for weather-related disruptions.

APA

Mikaelsson, M. A., & Dzebo, A. (2023). Impacts and risks from climate change on trade infrastructure. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.064-climate-trade-infrastructure.pdf

Chicago

Mikaelsson, Mikael Allan, and Adis Dzebo. Impacts and risks from climate change on trade infrastructure. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.064-climate-trade-infrastructure.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mikaelsson |first1=Mikael Allan |last2=Dzebo |first2=Adis |title=Impacts and risks from climate change on trade infrastructure |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=December 2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.064-climate-trade-infrastructure.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mikaelsson2023impacts, author = {Mikaelsson, Mikael Allan and Dzebo, Adis}, title = {{Impacts and risks from climate change on trade infrastructure}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.064-climate-trade-infrastructure.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }