Agriculture and Climate Change

The report assesses the vulnerability of Canadian Prairie agriculture to climate change, highlighting the historical impact of droughts in the 1930s and 1988. It projects that while warming may extend growing seasons and open northern lands for cultivation, increased evaporation and potential precipitation deficits could lead to more frequent and severe droughts, reducing average potential yields by 10-30%. The document emphasizes the need for policy shifts to incentivize sustainable land management and diversification, noting that current income protection programs may discourage adaptation. It also discusses Canada's potential shift in global competitive advantage, suggesting increased opportunities for wheat and corn exports if other global regions face diminished production.

• Historical droughts in the Canadian Prairies demonstrate high vulnerability to moisture deficits; the 1930s drought saw rainfall at only 60% of normal between 1933-1937, causing wheat yields to fall 32% below normal and corn yields to drop up to 50%.
• The 1988 drought was characterized by higher temperatures and precipitation deficits, with mean temperatures 4-7°C above normal in the summer, leading to a 29% decrease in the production of seven major grains and a 40% drop in four major specialty crops.
• Climate change scenarios for the Prairies predict increased temperatures and reduced soil moisture, which may lengthen the growing season—potentially reducing spring wheat maturation time by 11 days to 5 weeks—but could also increase the frequency of drought up to thirteen fold.
• Average potential crop yields across the Prairies are estimated to fall by 10-30%, though regional impacts vary: Manitoba crops may decrease by 1%, Alberta wheat, barley and canola may decrease by 7%, while Saskatchewan wheat, barley and canola may increase by 2-8%.
• Livestock production is considered more resistant to climate change than crops due to mobility and access to feed, and could serve as a key adaptation method through diversification.
• Current government income protection policies, such as crop insurance and the Gross Revenue Income Program, may hinder adaptation by encouraging the use of insurable practices over sustainable ones.
• Climate warming may enhance Canada's competitive advantage in the global market for wheat and corn, as the US corn and wheat belts could shift into Canada and production in most other global regions may diminish.

APA

International Institute for Sustainable Development (1997). Agriculture and Climate Change. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_climate.pdf

Chicago

International Institute for Sustainable Development. Agriculture and Climate Change. 1997. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_climate.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=International Institute for Sustainable Development |title=Agriculture and Climate Change |date=March 1997 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_climate.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{internationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopment1997agriculture, author = {{International Institute for Sustainable Development}}, title = {{Agriculture and Climate Change}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {1997}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_climate.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }