Agriculture and Climate Change

This 1997 draft report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development and the University of Toronto examines the vulnerability of agriculture in the Canadian Prairies to climate change. It analyzes historical droughts, projects future agroclimatic shifts, and discusses the economic and policy adaptations required to maintain sustainability and global competitiveness.

• Historical droughts in the Canadian Prairies demonstrate extreme vulnerability to moisture deficits. The 1930s drought saw rainfall drop to 60% of normal between 1933-1937, causing wheat yields to fall 32% below normal and corn yields to drop up to 50%, leading to the failure of approximately 200,000 farms. The 1988 drought was characterized by higher temperatures and precipitation deficits, resulting in a 29% decrease in the production of seven major grains and estimated export losses of $4 Billion.
• Climate change scenarios for the Prairies predict increased temperatures and reduced soil moisture, which may lengthen the growing season. For example, spring wheat maturation could be reduced by 11 days to 5 weeks. While this may allow for crops requiring more heating days, such as corn and sorghum, it also increases the risk of more frequent and severe droughts and an increase in dust storms due to the loss of soil organic matter.
• The impact of climate change on crop yields is expected to vary by province and crop. Average potential yields across the Prairies may fall by 10-30%. Specific projections suggest that all crops in Manitoba may decrease by 1%, while Alberta's wheat, barley, and canola may decrease by 7%, and Saskatchewan's wheat, barley, and canola may increase by 2-8%.
• Livestock production is considered more resistant to climate change than crop production due to mobility and access to feed. While summer heat can cause stress on range and housed livestock, warmer winters may reduce cold stress and energy requirements for heating facilities. Diversification into indigenous species like buffalo and elk is noted as a potential adaptation to reduce climate stress.
• Climate change may shift Canada's comparative advantage in the global market. It is predicted that opportunities for producing corn and wheat would increase as the US corn and wheat belts shift into Canada. Conversely, conditions for producing barley, oats, and soybeans would likely become less favourable. Manitoba is projected to potentially see a 190% increase in exports if northern soils are cultivated and higher-valued crops are adopted.
• Current agricultural policies may hinder adaptation by encouraging unsustainable practices through guaranteed income programs. The report suggests that income protection policies, such as crop insurance and the Gross Revenue Income Program, need to be reviewed. It notes that the issue of impacts and adaptation is "grossly neglected" in debates involving sustainable agriculture, which currently focus primarily on mitigation and carbon sinks.

APA

International Institute for Sustainable Development (1997). Agriculture and Climate Change. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_climate.pdf

Chicago

International Institute for Sustainable Development. Agriculture and Climate Change. 1997. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_climate.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=International Institute for Sustainable Development |title=Agriculture and Climate Change |date=March 1997 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_climate.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{internationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopment1997agriculture, author = {{International Institute for Sustainable Development}}, title = {{Agriculture and Climate Change}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {1997}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_climate.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }