Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: A preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

The paper examines the application of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to extreme weather in Africa, highlighting that different methodological framings—such as comparing single years versus decades—lead to significantly different risk quantifications. It argues that defining the 'right' attribution question is a stakeholder-driven process rather than a purely scientific one, which is critical for the effective implementation of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage. The authors emphasize that relying solely on predictable slow-onset events in loss and damage frameworks would exclude many vulnerable African communities affected by unpredictable extremes.

• Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) allows scientists to evaluate the extent to which human-induced climate change affects localized weather events by comparing simulations of the actual climate with a 'counterfactual world' where anthropogenic drivers are removed.
• The lack of long-term meteorological observations in Africa hinders the identification of extreme events and the validation of climate models, though using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in atmosphere-only general circulation models can provide a reliable entry point for attribution studies.
• The way an attribution question is framed and the threshold chosen for an 'extreme event' can dramatically alter the quantified risk. For example, in a simulation of East African July minimum temperatures, an annual approach suggested a much larger increase in risk than a decadal approach for the same threshold.
• There is a critical need for 'co-production of knowledge' through dialogue between scientists and stakeholders (including NGOs, politicians, and local communities) to ensure attribution research answers questions relevant to actual risk management and adaptation.
• If the UNFCCC's loss and damage framework focuses only on predictable slow-onset events like sea-level rise, it risks excluding vulnerable land-locked African countries and communities primarily affected by unpredictable extreme weather events.

APA

Otto, F. E. L., Boyd, E., Jones, R. G., Cornforth, R. J., James, R., Parker, H. R., & Allen, M. R. (n.d.). Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: A preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Otto-et-al-Attribution-of-extreme-weather-events-in-Africa-a-preliminary-exploration-of-the-science-and-policy-implications1.pdf

Chicago

Otto, Friederike E. L., Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker, and Myles R. Allen. Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: A preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Otto-et-al-Attribution-of-extreme-weather-events-in-Africa-a-preliminary-exploration-of-the-science-and-policy-implications1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Otto |first1=Friederike E. L. |last2=Boyd |first2=Emily |last3=Jones |first3=Richard G. |last4=Cornforth |first4=Rosalind J. |last5=James |first5=Rachel |last6=Parker |first6=Hannah R. |last7=Allen |first7=Myles R. |title=Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: A preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Otto-et-al-Attribution-of-extreme-weather-events-in-Africa-a-preliminary-exploration-of-the-science-and-policy-implications1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ottondattribution, author = {Otto, Friederike E. L. and Boyd, Emily and Jones, Richard G. and Cornforth, Rosalind J. and James, Rachel and Parker, Hannah R. and Allen, Myles R.}, title = {{Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: A preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Otto-et-al-Attribution-of-extreme-weather-events-in-Africa-a-preliminary-exploration-of-the-science-and-policy-implications1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }