Climate change and flood risk: Challenges for Jamaican towns and communities

The document details a CDKN-supported project (2013–14) that used Regional Climate Models (RCM) to assess future flood risks in Jamaica. Key findings include the high vulnerability of coastal tourism infrastructure in Negril to sea-level rise and the critical intersection of major roadways with high-likelihood floodplains. The study emphasizes that current risk assessments are hindered by low-resolution climate models (50 km) and a lack of high-quality topographical and hydro-meteorological data. It recommends the adoption of laser technology for terrain mapping and continuous GIS training for local government staff to improve disaster management.

• In the South Negril–Orange River watershed, a major tourism hub, future projections indicate that while rainfall-induced flood risk inland may moderately decline, coastal areas face increased risk due to rising sea levels.
• An island-wide riverine flood hazard map revealed that major towns, cities, and the primary road network are located in areas with a high likelihood of flooding, necessitating the development of flood-resistant infrastructure.
• The accuracy of future flood risk predictions is currently limited by the coarse resolution of climate models (50 km), which cannot provide data at the sub-watershed or community level, potentially leading to an underestimation of risk.
• Significant data gaps exist due to insufficient rain and flood gauges, as well as the loss of historical data; for example, rainfall data for the studied watersheds are only available from 1992 to 2013 because of a fire at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica.
• There is a critical need for higher-resolution topographical data, specifically using laser technology, because elevation changes of less than 1 m can determine which specific buildings and roads are inundated.
• Local government capacity is a barrier to implementation, as few parish councils in Jamaica can retain staff trained in geospatial data and computing, requiring continuous training interventions.

APA

Mandal, A., Smith, D., Wilson, M., Taylor, M., Nandi, A., & Otuokon, S. (2016). Climate change and flood risk: Challenges for Jamaican towns and communities. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/CDKN-Jamaica-flood-risk-Inside-Story.pdf

Chicago

Mandal, A., D. Smith, M. Wilson, M. Taylor, A. Nandi, and S. Otuokon. Climate change and flood risk: Challenges for Jamaican towns and communities. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2016. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/CDKN-Jamaica-flood-risk-Inside-Story.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mandal |first1=A. |last2=Smith |first2=D. |last3=Wilson |first3=M. |last4=Taylor |first4=M. |last5=Nandi |first5=A. |last6=Otuokon |first6=S. |title=Climate change and flood risk: Challenges for Jamaican towns and communities |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=June 2016 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/CDKN-Jamaica-flood-risk-Inside-Story.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mandal2016climate, author = {Mandal, A. and Smith, D. and Wilson, M. and Taylor, M. and Nandi, A. and Otuokon, S.}, title = {{Climate change and flood risk: Challenges for Jamaican towns and communities}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2016}, month = jun, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/CDKN-Jamaica-flood-risk-Inside-Story.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }