AFRICA’S CLIMATE

The report assesses climate variability and future projections across central, eastern, western, and southern Africa, highlighting a critical gap in observational data and a lack of consensus among climate models. It details regional risks—such as the 'east African climate change paradox' and the vulnerability of the Congo rainforest—while providing country-specific analysis for Malawi, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. The document emphasizes the need for improved high-resolution modelling and better communication of scientific uncertainty to support adaptation in agriculture, water, energy, and urban infrastructure.

• Central Africa is a global climate hotspot, with the Congo rainforest serving as the world's second largest tropical forest and a vital carbon store, though it is highly vulnerable to changes in rainfall and dry season length.
• There is a severe shortage of weather records in Central Africa, with far fewer meteorological stations than recommended by the World Meteorological Organization, leading to the region being disproportionately underrepresented in global climate databases.
• East Africa has seen a significant temperature increase since the early 1980s, and projections suggest average annual temperatures will rise by 1°C to 2.4°C by 2065.
• The 'east African climate change paradox' refers to the contradiction where observed 'long rains' (March to May) have decreased, while most climate models predict increasing rainfall for the coming decades.
• In West Africa, average temperatures have risen by approximately 1°C since 1950, with the Sahel experiencing higher increases of 1.5 to 2°C.
• West African rainfall variability is linked to sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as atmospheric carbon dioxide and northern hemisphere air pollution.
• Climate models for Africa generally have a modest ability to capture physical processes, often due to a historical lack of an 'Africa lens' in development, which prioritized northern hemisphere regions.
• In Southern Africa, there is significant disagreement between different observational data products regarding historical rainfall trends, which can lead to contradictory conclusions for policy and research.
• Zambia is critically dependent on water for its economy, with nearly 100% of its electricity produced by hydroelectric sources, making it highly vulnerable to temperature increases that reduce runoff and infiltration.
• In Rwanda, climate change is projected to increase the health burden of malaria, with the risk of contraction potentially increasing by 150% by the 2050s as higher altitudes warm.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2016). AFRICA’S CLIMATE. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/africas-climate-final-report-4nov16.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. AFRICA’S CLIMATE. 2016. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/africas-climate-final-report-4nov16.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=AFRICA’S CLIMATE |date=November 2016 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/africas-climate-final-report-4nov16.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2016africas, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{AFRICA’S CLIMATE}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2016}, month = nov, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/africas-climate-final-report-4nov16.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }