Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda Briefing Note

This briefing note presents an economic assessment of climate change impacts on Arabica coffee production in the Bududa District of the Mount Elgon region in Uganda. It compares 'Business as Usual' (BAU) and 'Climate Smart Agriculture' (CSA) scenarios, concluding that investing in CSA and institutional support is economically viable under both current and projected climate conditions.

• Arabica coffee production is highly sensitive to weather, with an optimal mean temperature range of 18-21°C. In the Mount Elgon region, coffee yields and quality have declined over the last 30 years due to poor management and an increase in the frequency of floods, landslides, and droughts.
• An economic analysis of coffee farming in the Bududa district shows that Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)—which includes trench construction, mulching, and planting trees—is more profitable than Business as Usual (BAU). Under current climate variability, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) increases from 27% for BAU to 41% for CSA.
• Climate projections for Mount Elgon suggest higher temperatures, a slight decrease in total annual rainfall, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts and excess rainfall. These changes are expected to lower coffee yields, particularly at lower altitudes.
• Combining CSA with institutional support measures is estimated to yield an internal rate of return of approximately 36%. The estimated investment costs for CSA are US$2.4 million in 2016, rising to US$4.9 million by 2019, which significantly exceeds the Bududa District Local Government's institutional support budget of approximately US$214,329.
• Between 2010 and 2012, coffee accounted for approximately 3% of Uganda's GDP and 20-30% of its foreign exchange earnings, employing over 3.5 million households in 2011. Arabica coffee specifically provides 43% of the country's direct coffee export earnings.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda Briefing Note. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Mount-Elgon_case-study_Briefing-Note.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda Briefing Note. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Mount-Elgon_case-study_Briefing-Note.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda Briefing Note |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Mount-Elgon_case-study_Briefing-Note.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndeconomic, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda Briefing Note}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Mount-Elgon_case-study_Briefing-Note.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }