Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This fact sheet summarizes a national-level economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture in Uganda, focusing on food crops, livestock, and export crops up to 2050. It highlights the significant economic risks posed by extreme weather events and outlines government adaptation priorities.

• By 2050, overall economic losses for food crops are projected to be no more than US$1.5 billion, which would represent less than 0.2 percent of GDP under assumed economic growth. While most of the 11 modeled food crops show production reductions, the impact varies by region, with the East and North experiencing the largest impacts. Specific crops like cassava, potato, and sweet potato could see reductions of around 40 percent, while millet, sorghum, and pigeon peas are expected to see reductions of less than 10 percent.
• Agricultural exports, which accounted for approximately 50 percent of Uganda's total export value in 2013, face significant risks by 2050. A 50% reduction in the combined production of Arabica and Robusta coffee would result in losses of about US$1,235 million, while a 75% reduction would lead to losses of about US$1,850 million. Combined losses for coffee and tea are estimated at US$1,400 million for a 50% reduction scenario and US$2,100 million for a 75% reduction scenario.
• Extreme weather events are identified as a more immediate threat to some agricultural products than decreased yields. The 2010-11 drought caused estimated losses of US$470 million across food crops, cash crops, and livestock, representing about 16 percent of the total value of these items in GDP for 2011. A 2008 drought caused annual damage of US$47 million to crops, approximately 3 percent of the value of all cash and food crops.
• The Government of Uganda has proposed a budget of approximately US$297 million over 15 years to address eight priority adaptation areas. These include promoting adaptive crop varieties and livestock breeds, conservation agriculture, sustainable rangeland management, irrigated agriculture, agricultural diversification, community-based adaptation strategies, and the development of innovative insurance and credit schemes.
• Modelling for livestock production suggests relatively small impacts on yield and area, estimated at 1 or 2 percent. However, the document notes that the primary impacts on livestock are likely to stem from other factors such as diseases, floods, and droughts.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Ag.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Ag.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Ag.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndeconomic, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Ag.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }