Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

The document assesses the economic risks climate change poses to Uganda's agricultural sector by 2050. It finds that while overall food crop losses may be limited to US$1.5 billion (less than 0.2% of GDP), specific crops like cassava and sweet potato could see 40% production reductions. Agricultural exports, particularly coffee and tea, face significant risks, with combined losses potentially reaching US$2.1 billion in a 75% reduction scenario. The report highlights that immediate threats from droughts and floods are more critical than gradual yield decreases, citing US$470 million in losses from the 2010-11 drought. To address these risks, the Government of Uganda has proposed a US$297 million budget over 15 years for eight adaptation priorities, including irrigation, crop diversification, and micro-insurance.

• By 2050, overall economic losses for food crops are estimated to be no more than US$1.5 billion, which would represent less than 0.2 percent of the GDP under assumed economic growth.
• Climate change impacts on food crops vary by region and crop; the East and North are expected to be most affected. While most of the 11 modelled crops show production reductions, cassava, potato, and sweet potato may see reductions of around 40 percent, whereas millet, sorghum, and pigeon peas are expected to decline by less than 10 percent.
• Agricultural exports are highly vulnerable, particularly coffee and tea. A 50% reduction in combined coffee and tea production could result in losses of US$1,400 million by 2050, while a 75% reduction scenario could lead to losses of US$2,100 million.
• Extreme weather events pose a more immediate and significant threat than gradual yield declines. The 2010-11 drought caused estimated losses of US$470 million across food crops, cash crops, and livestock, representing 16 percent of the total value of these items in the 2011 GDP.
• The Government of Uganda has identified eight adaptation priorities for agriculture with a proposed 15-year budget of approximately US$297 million. These priorities include promoting adaptive crop varieties and livestock breeds, conservation agriculture, sustainable rangeland management, irrigated agriculture, diversification, community-based adaptation, and innovative insurance schemes.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Ag.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Ag.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Ag.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndeconomic, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Ag.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }