FACTSHEET SOUTHERN AFRICA

This factsheet, published by the Climate and Development Knowledge Network in 2022, distils findings from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report specifically for southern Africa. It details observed climate changes, future risks to health, food systems, and economies, and outlines adaptation strategies and critical investment areas needed to build regional resilience.

• Southern Africa has experienced warming that exceeds the global average, with average annual surface temperatures increasing by 1.04°C to 1.44°C between 1961 and 2015. Other observed changes include an increase in hot days, a doubling of marine heatwaves along the coastline from 1982–2016, and an increase in meteorological drought frequency of 2.5 to 3 events per decade since 1961.
• Climate change has caused significant economic losses in southern Africa, with GDP per capita being on average 13.6% lower from 1991 to 2010 than it would have been without human-induced climate change. Specific impacts include a 2015–2016 drought in Zambia that disrupted hydropower and led to the lowest real economic growth rate in over 15 years.
• Future warming poses severe risks to food security; wheat yields in southern Africa are projected to decline by more than 50% at 1.5°C of global warming, even with adaptation. Additionally, marine fisheries catch potential is projected to decline by 10–30% at 2°C of warming, threatening dietary nutrients for countries highly dependent on these resources, such as Angola, Namibia, and Mozambique.
• Human health is increasingly threatened by climate change, with estimates that human-induced warming was responsible for nearly 44% of heat-related deaths in South Africa between 1991 and 2018. Global warming of 1.5°C is projected to expand the range of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, exposing tens of millions more people to illness.
• Urban areas in southern Africa face escalating risks from flooding, droughts, and heatwaves, with the extent of urban land in arid zones projected to increase by approximately 180% even without further climate change. By 2050, expected damages from sea level rise are estimated at US$ 650–980 million in Maputo and US$ 110–170 million in Cape Town.
• Adaptation capacity is severely hindered by a lack of finance and data. Between 1990 and 2019, research on Africa received only 3.8% of global climate-related research funding, with 78% of that amount going to institutions in North America and the EU rather than African institutions.
• Effective resilience requires transformative adaptation, including ecosystem-based solutions and gender-sensitive approaches. However, there is a risk of maladaptation, such as when bioenergy biomass production displaces subsistence farming or biodiversity-rich areas, thereby threatening food security and ecosystem services.
• Governance for resilience in southern Africa is currently limited by a lack of stand-alone climate legislation, though some countries like Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia have integrated climate considerations into existing laws. South Africa has a framework Bill drafted and Zimbabwe has one under discussion.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2022). FACTSHEET SOUTHERN AFRICA. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/IPCC%20Regional%20Factsheet_Southern%20Africa_Web.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. FACTSHEET SOUTHERN AFRICA. 2022. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/IPCC%20Regional%20Factsheet_Southern%20Africa_Web.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=FACTSHEET SOUTHERN AFRICA |date=2022 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/IPCC%20Regional%20Factsheet_Southern%20Africa_Web.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2022factsheet, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{FACTSHEET SOUTHERN AFRICA}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2022}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/IPCC%20Regional%20Factsheet_Southern%20Africa_Web.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }