The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report What’s in it for South Asia?

This executive summary distils findings from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report specifically for South Asia. It details observed climate changes, projected risks to food and water security, and the necessity of integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies into regional development to protect vulnerable populations and economic growth.

• South Asia has already experienced significant climate changes, including warming across most of the region during the 20th century and into the 2000s, with an increase in temperature extremes. Sea levels in the Indian Ocean have risen since the 1960s due to changing wind patterns, and the region has seen more extreme rainfall events and fewer weak rainfall events in the central Indian region.
• Climate change is already impacting human health and safety in South Asia. Increased temperatures and rainfall are associated with outbreaks of Dengue, Japanese encephalitis, and Malaria in India and Nepal. In Bangladesh, El Niño has been linked to cholera epidemics, and urban populations have suffered from heat stress and increased child mortality due to extreme temperatures.
• Future temperature projections for South Asia under a high-emissions scenario indicate that average annual temperatures could rise by more than 2°C by the mid-21st century and exceed 3°C by the late 21st century, with high latitudes potentially warming by more than 6°C. Under a low-emissions scenario, the rise could be less than 2°C, though higher latitudes could still warm by up to 3°C.
• Sea level rise poses a severe risk to South Asia's coastal settlements and economies. By the end of the 21st century, sea levels could rise between 26cm and 98cm depending on emissions. Low-lying, densely populated areas in India and Bangladesh are at increased risk of storm surges, which threatens millions of people.
• Climate change threatens food security in South Asia, where approximately 300 million people are currently undernourished. While warmer temperatures might boost wheat production in parts of Pakistan, the Indo-Gangetic plains face a substantial fall in wheat yields unless crop varieties and management practices change. In Bangladesh, climate-related declines in food productivity could increase poverty by 15% by 2030.
• Urban areas in South Asia are highly vulnerable, with port cities like Kolkata, Mumbai, and Dhaka identified as being at the most risk of coastal flooding by the 2070s. Rapid and unsustainable urban development, combined with population growth, increases the risk of catastrophic impacts from extreme events.
• Adaptation is critical for managing inevitable climate impacts, but adaptive capacity in South Asia is generally low, particularly at the local government level. Effective adaptation involves 'no regrets' or 'low regrets' measures, such as diversifying cropping systems and improving health services, which provide development benefits regardless of climate change.
• Low-carbon development offers economic opportunities for South Asia to avoid 'lock-in' to fossil fuel-dependent infrastructure. Examples include developing low-carbon mass transit to reduce congestion and air pollution, and scaling up renewable energy to expand energy access. Decentralised renewable technologies, such as improved cookstoves, specifically benefit women and girls by reducing indoor air pollution and the labor of collecting firewood.
• Integrated approaches that combine adaptation, mitigation, and development can provide multiple co-benefits. For instance, restoring mangroves and peat swamp forests provides flood defences (adaptation) while offering high carbon storage (mitigation). Similarly, urban and peri-urban agriculture in Sri Lanka's Western Province is used to mitigate flood risks and lower greenhouse gas emissions from food transport.
• International cooperation and financial support are essential for South Asia to limit warming to 2°C and build resilience. Developed countries have committed to mobilising US$100 billion a year by 2020 for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, which is vital for low-income countries like Nepal that have contributed little to global emissions.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2014). The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report What’s in it for South Asia? https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-IPCC-Whats-in-it-for-South-Asia-AR5.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report What’s in it for South Asia? 2014. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-IPCC-Whats-in-it-for-South-Asia-AR5.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report What’s in it for South Asia? |date=2014 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-IPCC-Whats-in-it-for-South-Asia-AR5.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2014ipccs, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report What’s in it for South Asia?}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2014}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-IPCC-Whats-in-it-for-South-Asia-AR5.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }