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The report identifies China as the world's largest methane emitter and explores how sustainable finance can bridge the investment gap for abatement. It highlights the 2025 NDC update as a critical window for action and recommends the integration of quantitative methane targets, expanded green taxonomies, and the inclusion of methane in the national emissions trading system to mobilise the estimated USD 7.7 billion in annual investment needed.

China is transitioning from a focus on adding renewable capacity to building a "new electricity system" that integrates high levels of variable energy. In 2024, China invested $625 billion USD in clean energy, significantly outpacing other major regions. This shift, combined with expanding electrification in industry, transport, and buildings, is contributing to a structural decline in fossil fuel generation. By the first half of 2025, combined wind and solar generation surpassed the combined output of hydro, nuclear, and bioenergy, and total installed capacity for these sources exceeded that of coal for the first time.

The report examines the financial and regulatory incentives needed to accelerate the decarbonisation of China's steel industry. It highlights a significant investment gap, noting that while pilot regions like Hebei have introduced sector-specific taxonomies and transition plan templates, national-level frameworks remain underdeveloped. The document argues that current incentives are insufficient for steelmakers due to high upfront costs and for financial institutions due to a lack of unified identification standards. It recommends expanding public subsidies, refining the capacity replacement policy to include carbon intensity criteria, and creating demand-side incentives for purchasers of low-carbon steel.

The report examines the application of transition finance tools—including loans and bonds—to support the decarbonisation of China's steel sector, highlighting the role of regional guidelines in Hebei Province. It identifies a significant funding gap, estimating a need for $18 billion in capital expenditure over the next five years for electric arc furnace (EAF) and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H2-DRI) technologies. While large state-owned enterprises are leading the transition, the report notes that high costs of green steel and limited scrap steel supply remain major barriers.

The report examines how transition finance is being leveraged to decarbonise China's steel industry, focusing on the impact of the first subnational regulatory framework introduced in Hebei Province in December 2023. It finds that the market responded quickly to these guidelines, with steel transition loans in Hebei exceeding CNY20bn (USD2.8bn) by the end of 2024. The document estimates that the sector requires at least USD18bn in capex over the next five years to invest in electric arc furnaces (EAF), direct reduced iron (DRI) shaft furnaces, and electrolysers. While large state-owned enterprises lead in transition planning, smaller firms face greater financing gaps. The report recommends that the People's Bank of China introduce further incentives, such as interest subsidies, and that steel companies secure offtake contracts to improve the bankability of green steel projects.

In 2024, China approved 66.7 GW of new coal power and saw 94.5 GW begin construction, the highest level since 2015, despite adding a record 356 GW of wind and solar capacity. This 'energy addition' strategy is driven by long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) that guarantee coal generation and the influence of coal mining companies, who financed over 75% of new approvals. These factors lead to the curtailment of renewables and a shift away from using coal plants as flexible regulating capacity. The report concludes that China's coal expansion contrasts sharply with global trends, as China accounted for 93% of global coal construction starts in 2024.

The report highlights that China's steel sector requires at least CNY1.6tn (USD220bn) in fixed-asset investment for decarbonisation by 2050. While the labelled bond and loan markets have the capacity to provide this capital, current issuance from the steel sector is minimal, representing only 0.1% of the Chinese labelled bond market. The document recommends aligning provincial transition finance guidelines with national and international standards, encouraging the use of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-reduction targets in sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs), and implementing green public procurement to stimulate demand for low-carbon steel.

China is leading global renewable energy deployment with 339 GW of utility-scale solar and wind power under construction, nearly double the capacity of the rest of the world combined. By the first quarter of 2024, wind and solar accounted for 37% of China's total power capacity. While the country is on track to potentially reach 1,200 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2024, significant obstacles remain, including a reliance on coal to mitigate intermittency, insufficient Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission lines, and rising curtailment rates in several provinces.

The report argues that for China's power sector to meet its 2030 peak emissions and 2060 carbon neutrality targets, electrical utilities must develop credible, science-based transition plans. These plans serve as the foundation for transition finance instruments, such as Use of Proceeds (UoP) bonds and sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs). While China is a major global issuer of SLBs, the report notes a lack of alignment with rigorous standards, as many domestic issuers focus on renewable energy capacity rather than comprehensive greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The document provides a framework for utilities to develop transition plans and select appropriate financial tools to support low-carbon development, including the retirement of coal assets and grid optimisation.

The report finds that while burning hydrogen in power plants is technically feasible, it is likely not a cost-effective solution for bulk power production or load following. The authors highlight significant inefficiencies, such as a 24% round-trip efficiency for electrolytic hydrogen, and high costs for necessary geological storage and transport infrastructure. Lifecycle emissions reductions for hydrogen derived from natural gas with carbon capture are limited (averaging 50%) due to upstream methane leaks. The report concludes that clean hydrogen production should be prioritized for heavy industry and transportation rather than the power sector, where clean firm generation (e.g., nuclear, geothermal) or other storage options (e.g., pumped storage hydropower) are generally more economical.

In 2023, Hong Kong's aligned GSS+ debt volume grew by 236% to USD 18.2 billion, driven primarily by the HKSAR Government's green bond issuance. The market is characterized by a strong preference for green-themed debt, with low-carbon buildings and land use as the primary use-of-proceeds categories. While the HKSAR Government dominates the local market, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange remains a key hub for offshore Chinese green bonds. The report also highlights the emergence of transition finance frameworks in mainland China and the introduction of the Hong Kong Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance to improve interoperability with international standards.

In 2023, China maintained its position as the world's largest green bond issuance market, despite a slight decline in total volume. The market is characterized by a strong preference for short-dated debt and a growing reliance on Second Party Opinions to enhance credibility. While green bonds are increasingly aligned with the 100% Use of Proceeds (UoP) rule, social and sustainability bonds face challenges with transparency and disclosure. Sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) are prolific in number but rarely utilize greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. Policy drivers include the China Green Bond Principles and the China-EU Common Ground Taxonomy, alongside emerging local transition finance guidelines for hard-to-abate sectors like steel and chemicals.

China is currently off track to meet its 2025 climate commitments, including targets for carbon and energy intensity and the share of non-fossil fuels. This is driven by a surge in coal power permitting and construction, with 114 GW approved and 70 GW starting construction in 2023. Despite official rhetoric that new coal plants serve a 'supporting' role for grid stability and renewable integration, the report finds this is often a 'smokescreen' for bulk power generation, leading to significant overcapacity and stranded asset risks.

This summary report details the outcomes of the High-Level Think Tank Seminar on Energy and Climate Change held in Beijing on April 25-26, 2024. The event brought together representatives from China and the United States to discuss decarbonization strategies, methane reduction, energy efficiency, carbon capture, and climate finance, while coordinating positions for COP29 and COP30.

The April 2024 China-US High-Level Dialogue in Beijing served as a venue for experts to discuss decarbonization strategies and identify collaboration opportunities despite challenging national-level relations. Key discussions focused on the differing sources of methane emissions, the scaling of CCUS and renewable energy, and the need for interoperable standards in trade and corporate disclosure. Both nations emphasized the importance of subnational cooperation and the role of the Sunnylands Statement in guiding joint efforts toward COP 29 and COP 30.

China is experiencing a significant increase in coal power capacity, with 37 GW starting construction and 52 GW permitted in the first half of 2023. The report argues that most of these projects violate central government policies intended to limit coal to a supporting role for renewables, instead serving as bulk power generation. This trend, driven by energy security concerns and a desire to maximize carbon-intensive capacity before the 2030 peaking deadline, risks creating massive overcapacity and undermining China's carbon neutrality goals.

China has established global leadership in renewable energy, with utility-scale solar capacity of 228 GW and wind capacity exceeding 310 GW as of Q1 2023. The country is pursuing an ambitious target of over 1,200 GW of combined wind and solar capacity by 2030, supported by the '14th Five-Year Plan' and the development of massive 'wind-solar bases' in desert regions. While integrating these sources through ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission and new energy storage technologies, China continues to utilize coal-fired power as a 'bottom-line' guarantee for grid stability, which may hinder the complete phase-out of fossil fuels.

China has established itself as the global leader in renewable energy, with operating large utility-scale solar capacity of 228 GW and combined wind capacity exceeding 310 GW. The country is pursuing a strategy of 'mega wind and solar bases' in its northern and northwestern deserts to meet a central government target of 1,200 GW of cumulative capacity by 2030, a goal it is likely to surpass by 2025. This expansion is driven by a combination of historical feed-in tariffs, favorable financing from state-owned banks, and strict provincial targets. However, the report notes that new renewables bases are often bundled with new coal-fired power plants to manage intermittency, potentially hindering the phase-out of fossil fuels. To address volatility, China is implementing 'source-grid-load-storage' integration, expanding new energy storage, and developing green hydrogen production.

In 2021, China's coal-fired power construction reached its highest level since 2016, with 33 GW of new capacity starting construction. Despite carbon neutrality targets, investment in long-process steel remains high, with China accounting for 85% of global new long-process capacity. The report warns that these investments lock in coal dependency and risk creating stranded assets valued at hundreds of billions of dollars. While there is growth in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel and renewable energy targets, the scale of new fossil-fuel infrastructure continues to outpace the transition needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.

The document reports a surge in China's coal power construction and coal-based steelmaking investments in 2021, contradicting the country's carbon neutrality goals. It highlights that 33 GW of new coal power plants started construction in 2021 and 74 million tonnes of coal-based steelmaking capacity were approved. The report warns that these investments risk creating billions of dollars in stranded assets and lock the sectors into coal dependency, while noting a simultaneous but insufficient scale-up of clean energy.