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Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East
This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) examines how climate change interacts with existing political tensions in the Middle East, specifically the Levant, to increase the risk of violent conflict through water scarcity, food insecurity, and economic instability.
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Document type: Report
Leveraging Water Data in a Machine Learning–Based Model for Forecasting Violent Conflict
The World Resources Institute presents a random forest model that captures 86% of future conflicts (defined as 10+ fatalities per year), though with a 50% false positive rate. While water-related variables correlate with conflict, they are not empirically significant for model decisions unless the conflict definition is modified. A web-based tool is provided to visualize these forecasts and vulnerabilities.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Research paper