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This report develops a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reference case for Pakistan, projecting a rise in emissions from 365 Mt CO2e in 2012 to 768 Mt CO2e by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. The analysis identifies GDP growth as the primary driver of emissions, with potential increases linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While the electricity sector is expected to integrate more wind and solar energy, overall demand will likely exceed supply. The report highlights significant data gaps in the waste and agriculture sectors and compares its findings with the NEEDS assessment, noting that autonomous energy efficiency improvements provide a modest reduction in projected emissions.