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The document introduces Madagascar as a low-income island nation with high biodiversity and significant vulnerability to extreme weather. It details the country's diverse precipitation patterns, its history of colonial rule and political instability—including a 2009 coup—and its current political landscape under President Andry Rajoelina. The text serves as a foundational context for the 'Current Path' development trajectory forecasts produced by the African Futures & Innovation program.

The report analyzes the socioeconomic and productive profiles of smallholders in the Caatinga and Cerrado biomes of Brazil. It highlights significant disparities in productivity, water access, and poverty levels between the two regions, noting that smallholders in the Caatinga are more likely to engage in subsistence farming and face higher poverty rates. The analysis emphasizes that a 'rural just transition' requires tailored policies that address these regional differences, specifically targeting the needs of women and black farmers who often manage smaller plots. It identifies critical barriers to sustainable transition, including low education levels, deficient technical assistance, and limited access to climate-resilient inputs. The report argues for a shift from extractive to regenerative models by supporting a subset of smallholders interested in commercialization through labor-intensive, low-carbon agricultural practices.