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Climate change increased heavy rainfall, hitting vulnerable communities in Eastern Northeast Brazil
The report investigates the May 2022 extreme rainfall event in Eastern Northeast Brazil, which caused 133 deaths and displaced over 25,000 people. Observational analysis indicates that 7-day and 15-day rainfall events of this magnitude are exceptionally rare in the current climate, with return periods of approximately 1-in-500 and 1-in-1000 years, respectively. While climate models exhibited systematic errors in precipitation magnitudes for this specific event, the authors conclude that human-caused climate change is at least partially responsible for increasing the likelihood and intensity of such rainfall. The study further highlights that structural vulnerabilities, including unplanned urbanisation in low-income neighbourhoods and an infrastructure deficit, significantly exacerbated the disaster's impact.
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Document type: Research paper