Assessing Climate Risk in Myanmar

The report assesses current and future climate risks in Myanmar, projecting significant temperature increases, variable rainfall changes, and rising sea levels by mid-century. It highlights vulnerabilities across biodiversity, health, agriculture, and infrastructure, while demonstrating how the Myanmar Climate Change Alliance (MCCA) uses vulnerability assessments in the Ayeyarwady Delta and Central Dry Zone to guide local adaptation planning.

• Myanmar's average annual temperatures are projected to rise by 0.7°C–1.1°C during the 2020s and accelerate to 1.3°C–2.7°C by the middle of the 21st century. The most significant warming is expected in the eastern and northern hilly regions, where hot season average temperatures could rise by up to 3°C.
• Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically; while Myanmar averaged about one day of extreme heat per month between 1981 and 2010, future projections suggest this could increase to between four and 17 days per month. April is expected to see the highest increase in these extreme heat days.
• Rainfall projections indicate an increase in precipitation during the monsoon season, which may increase flooding in some regions. However, projections for the hot and cool seasons are uncertain, with both increases and decreases possible.
• Sea levels along the Myanmar coastline are projected to rise by 5 cm to 13 cm in the 2020s, 20 cm to 41 cm in the 2050s, and 37 cm to 83 cm in the 2080s. A 0.5 m rise could cause the coastline to retreat by approximately 10 km in low-lying areas such as the Ayeyarwady Delta.
• Historical data from 1981 to 2010 shows that Myanmar's climate is already changing, with average temperatures increasing by 0.25°C and daily maximum temperatures rising faster in inland regions (0.57°C per decade) than in coastal areas (0.23°C per decade).
• While the total number of tropical cyclones reaching Myanmar has increased since 1990, future projections on cyclone frequency and severity remain uncertain. However, climate change is expected to increase maximum wind speeds and precipitation intensity for cyclones that do make landfall.
• The Myanmar Climate Change Alliance (MCCA) is implementing a three-phase adaptation approach in the Pakokku (Central Dry Zone) and Labutta (Ayeyarwady Delta) townships, using vulnerability assessments to prioritize healthy ecosystems, a resilient economy, and resilient infrastructure.

APA

Horton, R., De Mel, M., Peters, D., Lesk, C., Bartlett, R., Helsingen, H., Bader, D., Capizzi, P., Martin, S., & Rosenzweig, C. (2017). Assessing Climate Risk in Myanmar. WWF International. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/418/1qs26pdotb_climate_risk_assessment_summary_eng.pdf

Chicago

Horton, Radley, Manishka De Mel, Danielle Peters, Corey Lesk, Ryan Bartlett, Hanna Helsingen, Daniel Bader, et al. Assessing Climate Risk in Myanmar. WWF International, 2017. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/418/1qs26pdotb_climate_risk_assessment_summary_eng.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{horton2017assessing, author = {Horton, Radley and De Mel, Manishka and Peters, Danielle and Lesk, Corey and Bartlett, Ryan and Helsingen, Hanna and Bader, Daniel and Capizzi, Pasquale and Martin, Shaun and Rosenzweig, Cynthia}, title = {{Assessing Climate Risk in Myanmar}}, institution = {WWF International}, year = {2017}, month = mar, url = {https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/418/1qs26pdotb_climate_risk_assessment_summary_eng.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }