Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran

The study analyzes severe flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran during April and May 2024, which caused hundreds of deaths and significant infrastructure damage. While the event occurred outside the typical winter rainfall season, researchers found that a declining El Niño increased the likelihood of such rainfall by approximately two times and intensity by about 8% compared to neutral years. The analysis concludes that human-induced climate change cannot be definitively attributed as the main driver due to discrepancies between observational data and climate model signals, although a 40-year observational trend shows an increase in heavy rainfall. The report emphasizes that high vulnerability—driven by deforestation, unplanned urban expansion, and limited water management—exacerbated the disaster's impact.

• The flooding in April and May 2024 resulted in significant loss of life and property, with Afghanistan being the most affected country with 540 reported fatalities since March. Pakistan saw at least 124 deaths in April, and Iran recorded 18 deaths in May, alongside the destruction of thousands of homes and agricultural lands.
• The event occurred outside the region's typical winter rainfall season (November to early April) and followed a three-month dry period. In the current climate, warmed by 1.2°C, such an event has a return time of approximately ten years under current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.
• A declining El Niño was a key factor in the rainfall variability; compared to a neutral ENSO year, this phenomenon increased the likelihood of the event by a factor of about two and the intensity by approximately 8%.
• Researchers could not definitively attribute the flooding to human-induced climate change because climate models provided conflicting signals—some showing an increase and others a decrease—which disagreed with the increase seen in the last 40 years of observational data.
• High vulnerability increased the impact of the floods, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan due to deforestation, unplanned urban expansion, and limited transboundary water management. In Iran, vulnerabilities were primarily linked to urban infrastructure in northeast cities.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2024). Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasing-april-may-rainfall-el-nino-and-high-vulnerability-behind-deadly-flooding-in-afghanistan-pakistan-and-iran/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasing-april-may-rainfall-el-nino-and-high-vulnerability-behind-deadly-flooding-in-afghanistan-pakistan-and-iran/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran |date=13 June 2024 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasing-april-may-rainfall-el-nino-and-high-vulnerability-behind-deadly-flooding-in-afghanistan-pakistan-and-iran/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2024increasing, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasing-april-may-rainfall-el-nino-and-high-vulnerability-behind-deadly-flooding-in-afghanistan-pakistan-and-iran/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }