The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022

The report finds that while updated NDCs show increased ambition and better alignment with national planning, a massive gap remains between current commitments and the emissions reductions needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. Mitigation efforts have improved in scope and transparency, but many sectoral measures remain vague. Adaptation components are more prevalent in developing countries and show increased focus on equity and critical systems, though implementation details like timeframes and indicators are often missing. Climate finance requirements reported in NDCs total $4.282 trillion, highlighting a significant need for increased international support.

• Updated NDCs aim to reduce 2030 emissions by an estimated 5.5 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) more than initial NDCs, representing a 7% reduction from 2019 levels. However, this is far below the at least 43% reduction required to maintain the 1.5°C goal.
• Mitigation targets have become more robust, with an increase in the number of NDCs using absolute reductions relative to a base year (growing from 34 to 42) and those with complete sectoral coverage (growing from 54 to 93).
• There is a significant trend toward including unconditional mitigation elements; the number of NDCs with at least some unconditional element increased from 103 to 123, while completely conditional NDCs fell from 50 to 34.
• In the power sector, renewable energy measures are widespread, particularly solar power (80 NDCs), but only 51 NDCs contain measures related to fossil fuel-fired generation, some of which would actually expand fossil fuel use.
• Transport NDCs have shifted focus toward e-mobility, with the number of electrification actions more than doubling from 27 to 68. However, there is limited focus on demand management, public transit, or freight, the latter of which is mentioned in only 19 new and updated NDCs.
• The number of NDCs explicitly addressing a 'just transition' has increased from 1 in the initial round to 32 currently, though the level of detail provided remains highly uneven.
• Adaptation components are included in 144 current NDCs, with a stark divide between developed and developing nations: 139 developing country NDCs include adaptation, compared to only 5 out of 16 developed country NDCs.
• While the total number of priority adaptation actions increased from 2,850 to 4,641, quality remains a concern: only 39% include time frames and only 13% list targets or indicators.
• Food and nutrition security, water, and nature-based solutions are the three most-prioritized systems in NDC adaptation components.
• Equity considerations in adaptation have improved, with 79 current NDCs addressing gender differences in adaptation needs and an increase in references to local and Indigenous knowledge.
• Losses and damages (L&D) are increasingly described by climate-vulnerable countries, particularly Small Island Developing States (SIDS), though only 6 Parties provide a formal definition of the term.
• Eighty-nine current NDCs report climate finance requirements totaling $4,282 billion, consisting of $2,740 billion for mitigation, $1,067 billion for adaptation, and $475 billion unspecified.
• Conditional finance requirements are significantly higher than unconditional ones, with conditional costs being almost three times the amount of unconditional finance reported.

APA

Fransen, T., Henderson, C., O’Connor, R., Alayza, N., Caldwell, M., Chakrabarty, S., Dixit, A., Finch, M., Kustar, A., Langer, P., Stolle, F., Walls, G., & Welle, B. (2022). The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2022-10/state-of-ndcs-2022.pdf?VersionId=VqrCpyQHmf5utPcHCScbqeTgU2p2SOam

Chicago

Fransen, Taryn, Christopher Henderson, Ryan O’Connor, Natalia Alayza, Molly Caldwell, Subrata Chakrabarty, Aarjan Dixit, et al. The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022. World Resources Institute, 2022. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2022-10/state-of-ndcs-2022.pdf?VersionId=VqrCpyQHmf5utPcHCScbqeTgU2p2SOam.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{fransen2022state, author = {Fransen, Taryn and Henderson, Christopher and O’Connor, Ryan and Alayza, Natalia and Caldwell, Molly and Chakrabarty, Subrata and Dixit, Aarjan and Finch, Mario and Kustar, Anna and Langer, Paige and Stolle, Fred and Walls, Ginette and Welle, Benjamin}, title = {{The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2022}, url = {https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2022-10/state-of-ndcs-2022.pdf?VersionId=VqrCpyQHmf5utPcHCScbqeTgU2p2SOam}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }