Virginia Faces

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) identifies that multiple Virginia communities face 'chronic inundation'—defined as high tide flooding 10% or more of usable, non-wetland area at least 26 times per year—by 2100. Under an intermediate scenario, three communities will be affected by 2035 and 21 by 2100; under a high scenario, 38 communities will be exposed by the century's end. The report highlights specific risks to Poquoson, Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Hampton, and military installations like Joint Base Langley-Eustis and Naval Air Station Oceana Dam Neck Annex. It argues that limiting global warming to approximately 1.8°C could spare 16 to 30 communities from this fate by 2100. Recommended responses include phasing out risky coastal development, enhancing FEMA's mitigation grants, and creating new programs for retreat and relocation.

• The Union of Concerned Scientists defines 'chronic inundation' as occurring when high tide floods 10 percent or more of a community's usable, non-wetland area at least 26 times per year, or on average every other week.
• Under the intermediate sea level rise scenario, three Virginia communities will face chronic inundation by 2035, increasing to 21 communities by 2100. In the high scenario, 38 communities would be exposed by the end of the century.
• Specific high-risk areas include Poquoson, which would see 30% of its non-wetland area chronically flood by 2060 (intermediate) or 2045 (high). By 2080 in the high scenario, chronic flooding would affect 14% of Norfolk, 18% of Virginia Beach, 26% of Hampton, and more than half of Joint Base Langley-Eustis and Naval Air Station Oceana Dam Neck Annex.
• Limiting global warming to approximately 1.8°C (the 'low' scenario) could prevent chronic inundation for four or more Virginia communities by 2060 and between 16 and 30 communities by 2100.
• The document recommends three policy response categories: halting risky coastal development (updating flood maps and building codes), enhancing existing frameworks (funding FEMA's Hazard Mitigation Grant Program and home buyouts), and creating new measures for retreat and relocation.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2017). Virginia Faces. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/07/when-rising-seas-hit-home-virginia-fact-sheet.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Virginia Faces. 2017. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/07/when-rising-seas-hit-home-virginia-fact-sheet.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Virginia Faces |date=July 2017 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/07/when-rising-seas-hit-home-virginia-fact-sheet.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2017virginia, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Virginia Faces}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2017}, month = jul, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/07/when-rising-seas-hit-home-virginia-fact-sheet.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }