Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast

The report details how the U.S. Northeast is warming, with winter temperatures rising faster than summer ones, leading to reduced snowpack, rising sea levels, and shifting species habitats. It compares a higher-emissions scenario with a lower-emissions scenario, finding that while some warming is inevitable, aggressive emissions reductions can significantly mitigate severe risks to the region's economy, ecosystems, and public health.

• Since 1970, the Northeast has warmed at a rate of nearly 0.5°F per decade, with winter temperatures rising faster at 1.3°F per decade from 1970 to 2000.
• Under a higher-emissions scenario by late-century, Northeast winters could warm by 8°F to 12°F and summers by 6°F to 14°F above historic levels.
• Coastal flooding is projected to increase significantly; by the end of the century, Boston and Atlantic City, NJ, may experience today's 100-year flood almost every year or two on average.
• Marine fisheries are expected to shift northward; cod are projected to disappear from waters south of Cape Cod by the end of the century regardless of the emissions scenario.
• The lobster fishery in Long Island Sound and coastal waters off Rhode Island and south of Cape Cod is likely to decline significantly by mid-century.
• Spruce/fir forests are highly vulnerable; under a higher-emissions scenario, suitable habitat for these forests could all but disappear from the region by the end of the century.
• Agricultural productivity faces risks from heat stress and inadequate winter-chill periods; by late-century, milk production could decline 5 to 20 percent in certain months under the higher-emissions scenario.
• Certain fruit crops, including apples, blueberries, and cranberries, may become unsustainable in parts of the Northeast by mid-century due to a lack of required winter-chill periods.
• Winter recreation is highly vulnerable; by late-century, the average snowmobiling season length across the region could decline by 80 percent under the higher-emissions scenario.
• Skiing viability will contract; by late-century under the higher-emissions scenario, only western Maine is projected to retain a reliable ski season.
• Human health risks will increase with more extreme heat; cities like Pittsburgh and Concord, NH, could average 25 days over 100°F every summer by late-century under the higher-emissions scenario.
• Air quality is projected to deteriorate, with the number of days failing to meet federal ozone standards potentially quadrupling in Philadelphia by late-century under the higher-emissions scenario.
• To avoid the most severe impacts, the report argues the Northeast should aim for emissions reductions of approximately 80 percent below 2000 levels by mid-century, requiring an average annual reduction of just over 3 percent.

APA

Frumhoff, P. C., McCarthy, J. J., Melillo, J. M., Moser, S. C., & Wuebbles, D. J. (2007). Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf

Chicago

Frumhoff, Peter C., James J. McCarthy, Jerry M. Melillo, Susanne C. Moser, and Donald J. Wuebbles. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2007. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Frumhoff |first1=Peter C. |last2=McCarthy |first2=James J. |last3=Melillo |first3=Jerry M. |last4=Moser |first4=Susanne C. |last5=Wuebbles |first5=Donald J. |title=Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=July 2007 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{frumhoff2007confronting, author = {Frumhoff, Peter C. and McCarthy, James J. and Melillo, Jerry M. and Moser, Susanne C. and Wuebbles, Donald J.}, title = {{Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2007}, month = jul, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }