Modelling The Interaction Between Mitigation And Adaptation For Decision Making

The report argues that mitigation and adaptation are complementary rather than substitutable, as adaptation has physical and societal limits and cannot offset the risks of catastrophic climate change. It critiques most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for oversimplifying adaptation as an optimal, linear process and underestimating damage costs. The authors highlight the PAGE09 model as a more robust tool due to its uncertainty analysis. The document also reviews sector-specific physical models for water, agriculture, and coasts, noting that while they provide more detail, they often lack a dynamic representation of the adaptation process. It concludes by proposing a conceptual framework that combines different levels of mitigation and adaptation effort under various socioeconomic pathways to analyze residual risks.

• Mitigation and adaptation are complementary strategies; relying on adaptation alone is insufficient because some climate risks, such as tipping points and catastrophic events, are beyond the limits of adaptation.
• The notion of '1°C of adaptation'—the idea that adaptation in a +3°C world could reduce impacts to those of a +2°C world—is unrealistic due to the non-uniformity of adaptation across sectors and regions and the limited adaptive capacity of ecosystems.
• Most non-complex Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are misleading because they assume adaptation is an optimal, rational, and linear process, often ignoring adaptation deficits and the influence of non-climate drivers.
• The PAGE09 model is identified as superior to many other IAMs because it incorporates rigorous uncertainty analysis, accounts for catastrophic change, and does not assume that mitigation and adaptation are perfect substitutes.
• Physically based models generally have limited treatment of adaptation, though some progress exists in crop models (e.g., GLAM and PEGASUS) which simulate planting date changes and variety switching.
• In coastal modeling, the DIVA system is noted as an advanced approach for assessing the costs and benefits of adaptation, although evidence from the Netherlands and UK suggests its cost estimates may be overly optimistic compared to national studies.
• The report proposes a new conceptual framework for decision-making based on a dynamic risk assessment of alternative future scenarios that combine different levels of mitigation and adaptation effort under various socioeconomic pathways.

APA

Warren, R., Benzie, M., Arnell, N., Nicholls, R., Hope, C., Klein, R., & Watkiss, P. (2012). Modelling The Interaction Between Mitigation And Adaptation For Decision Making. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Pub2188-Klein-Benzie-Scoping_study_Modelling_the_interaction-AVOID_WS2_D1_39.pdf

Chicago

Warren, Rachel, Magnus Benzie, Nigel Arnell, Robert Nicholls, Chris Hope, Richard Klein, and Paul Watkiss. Modelling The Interaction Between Mitigation And Adaptation For Decision Making. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Pub2188-Klein-Benzie-Scoping_study_Modelling_the_interaction-AVOID_WS2_D1_39.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{warren2012modelling, author = {Warren, Rachel and Benzie, Magnus and Arnell, Nigel and Nicholls, Robert and Hope, Chris and Klein, Richard and Watkiss, Paul}, title = {{Modelling The Interaction Between Mitigation And Adaptation For Decision Making}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Pub2188-Klein-Benzie-Scoping_study_Modelling_the_interaction-AVOID_WS2_D1_39.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }