Bioenergy Trade in a Changing Climate

The document examines how climate change affects bioenergy supply, demand, and logistics, specifically within the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden). It argues that while the Nordic region may benefit from increased biomass productivity and reduced heating demand, its reliance on international bioenergy trade exposes it to global climate risks. The paper explores synergies between mitigation and adaptation, such as the use of perennial grasses and agroforestry, and warns of conflicts, including the potential for bioenergy demand to drive indirect land use change (ILUC) and soil erosion in other regions.

• Climate change is expected to have a generally positive impact on bioenergy supply in the Nordic region, as warmer temperatures likely increase the productive capacity of forests and improve conditions for agriculture and perennial grasses.
• In the Nordic region, the reduction in demand for bio-based heating due to warmer winters is expected to outweigh the increased demand for cooling, potentially reducing overall bioenergy demand.
• Bioenergy supply chains are vulnerable to climate-induced logistical disruptions; for example, wood pellet shipping in British Columbia is often halted during rain because pellets are moisture-sensitive.
• International trade serves as an adaptation mechanism by allowing regions to hedge risks and distribute the effects of region-specific supply or demand shocks.
• Perennial grasses, such as Miscanthus spp. and switchgrass, offer mitigation-adaptation synergies due to high water productivity, low fertilizer needs, and root systems that prevent soil erosion.
• Agroforestry can bridge the temporal gap between immediate adaptation benefits (such as improved soil resilience) and long-term mitigation benefits (carbon sequestration and renewable energy).
• There is a potential conflict between bioenergy production and soil protection, as removing harvest residues for fuel can lead to nutrient deficiencies and increased soil compaction, especially in warmer, moister Nordic winters.
• Increased demand for bioenergy in the Nordic region may indirectly reduce adaptive capacities elsewhere through Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC), such as expanding corn cultivation into erosion-prone areas in the US Midwest.
• Waste-to-energy can act as a viable adaptation-mitigation strategy by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating the climate risks associated with landfilling, such as flooding hazards.

APA

Olsson, O., & Johnson, F. X. (2014). Bioenergy Trade in a Changing Climate. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/NORD-STAR-WP-2014-01-Olsson-Johnson.pdf

Chicago

Olsson, Olle, and Francis X. Johnson. Bioenergy Trade in a Changing Climate. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2014. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/NORD-STAR-WP-2014-01-Olsson-Johnson.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Olsson |first1=Olle |last2=Johnson |first2=Francis X. |title=Bioenergy Trade in a Changing Climate |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=April 2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/NORD-STAR-WP-2014-01-Olsson-Johnson.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{olsson2014bioenergy, author = {Olsson, Olle and Johnson, Francis X.}, title = {{Bioenergy Trade in a Changing Climate}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/NORD-STAR-WP-2014-01-Olsson-Johnson.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }