Mombasa: Stepping Stones to a Climate-Resilient Future?

This policy brief examines the intersection of demographic growth, climate change, and waste management in Mombasa, Kenya. It argues that while the city faces significant risks from flooding and sea-level rise, there is substantial potential for nature-based solutions—such as constructed wetlands and mangrove restoration—to build ecological, economic, and social resilience.

• Mombasa faces significant climate vulnerabilities, with approximately 10% of the population affected by flooding in 2006 and 17% of the city identified as being at risk of submergence if sea levels rise by 0.3m. Future business-as-usual projections suggest the cost of climate impacts could increase from $470 million in 2005 to $15 billion by 2080, a rise driven more by socio-economic exposure than the magnitude of the hazard itself.
• The city's primary climate risks are identified as flooding, pollution (waste management), and urbanisation. These factors interact negatively; for instance, poor solid waste management blocks drainage systems, which exacerbates flooding and leads to the wider dispersal of waste into the environment.
• Nature-based solutions are proposed as critical for resilience, including the restoration of 10–20% of every 1km² of urban land to natural ecosystems. Specific examples in Mombasa include constructed wetlands in the Kiembeni neighbourhood and at Shimo la Tewa prison to treat grey water, as well as the restoration of abandoned limestone quarries into forests and nature trails.
• Mangroves provide essential services for coastal protection, sediment capture, and nutrient absorption. The Mikoko Pamoja project south of Mombasa demonstrates the economic viability of 'blue carbon' finance, generating over $10,000 annually from carbon sequestration to fund local healthcare, education, and welfare projects.
• Current major planning documents for Mombasa do not sufficiently integrate climate resilience or natural infrastructure. The Gate City Master Plan focuses on transport and port infrastructure without mentioning 'climate' or 'resilience', and the County Integrated Development Plan (2018–2022) mentions mangroves and wetlands but not as primary infrastructure for resilience.
• The MijiBora Project, funded by WIOMSA, is working to address the nexus of waste management, flooding, and climate change by linking Mombasa with eThekwini municipality in South Africa. Its activities include contributing to the Mombasa County Solid Waste Bill, mapping dumping sites, and using geospatial technology to create land use data for the county.

APA

OBURA, D. (2020). Mombasa: Stepping Stones to a Climate-Resilient Future? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Policy-Insights-89-obura.pdf

Chicago

OBURA, DAVID. Mombasa: Stepping Stones to a Climate-Resilient Future? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2020. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Policy-Insights-89-obura.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=OBURA |first1=DAVID |title=Mombasa: Stepping Stones to a Climate-Resilient Future? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Policy-Insights-89-obura.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{obura2020mombasa, author = {OBURA, DAVID}, title = {{Mombasa: Stepping Stones to a Climate-Resilient Future?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Policy-Insights-89-obura.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }