Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses

This research paper analyzes the intersection of the COVID-19 pandemic and global climate change responses, arguing that the pandemic serves as a 'climate change parable' with systemic similarities. It explores how national recovery efforts can either bolster or undermine the goals of the Paris Agreement and the postponed COP 26 summit, providing recommendations for aligning economic stimulus with green transitions.

• The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are described as systemic risk-multipliers with parallel characteristics, both representing extreme shocks to physical systems (health and climate) that result in negative economic consequences requiring mitigation of their underlying causes.
• While the pandemic caused a temporary global emissions decrease of approximately 2000 Mt/CO2e (a 5.5% year-on-year reduction) in 2020, these gains are not automatic. Projections suggest a sharp rebound in global GDP in 2021 could lead to a correlated increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
• There is a significant gap between current National Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the scientific requirements to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. To reach the 1.5°C objective, emissions must be reduced by more than 7.6% annually during the 2020s to be 45% below 2010 levels by 2030.
• Various countries have implemented COVID-19 responses with climate co-benefits: Rwanda's revised NDC targets a 38% GHG reduction by 2030; Canada provided CAD 20750 million for oil and gas emissions and CAD 1.7 billion for orphaned wells; and India and the UK prioritized renewables over coal during the crisis.
• Some nations have taken actions that undermine climate goals during the pandemic. Australia has motivated for coal mine expansion to support employment, and China has seen increased heavy industrial output and construction that may raise CO2 produced per unit of GDP growth.
• The oil and gas sector has been the most active globally in lobbying governments for financial support and deregulation. In Canada, this included lobbying to freeze the carbon tax and delay new climate regulations.
• The author recommends several strategies to align pandemic recovery with climate goals, including financing health systems in low-and-middle income countries, implementing fossil fuel tax reforms, creating public works for energy efficiency and sustainable transport, and embedding GHG reduction conditions in state bailouts.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2020). Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses. https://saiia.org.za/research/implications-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-for-global-climate-change-responses/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses. 2020. https://saiia.org.za/research/implications-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-for-global-climate-change-responses/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses |date=5 August 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/implications-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-for-global-climate-change-responses/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2020implications, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/implications-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-for-global-climate-change-responses/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }