Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses

The document argues that the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a 'climate change parable,' presenting both risks and opportunities for global climate action. While the pandemic caused a temporary decrease in global emissions, the author warns that this is not a permanent decoupling of economic growth from emissions. The paper highlights a divide in national responses: some countries, like Rwanda and Canada, have integrated climate goals into recovery plans, while others, such as Australia and China, have shown tendencies toward industry protectionism or high-emissions stimulus. The author recommends that governments use stimulus packages to decarbonize the economy through fossil fuel tax reforms, renewable energy investments, and conditional state bailouts for carbon-intensive sectors to ensure the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement remains attainable.

• The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are described as 'risk-multipliers' that both represent extreme shocks to physical systems and cause negative economic consequences requiring mitigation of their underlying causes.
• While the pandemic led to a significant temporary drop in global emissions—estimated at 5.5% to 8% for 2020—this is a one-off event and not a structural decoupling of emissions from economic output, as emissions are expected to rebound with GDP growth in 2021.
• There is a significant 'emissions gap' between current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the science-based requirements to limit warming to 1.5°C, which requires annual emissions reductions of over 7.6% during the 2020s.
• National responses to the pandemic vary, with some countries integrating climate goals into recovery (e.g., Rwanda's revised NDC targeting 38% GHG reduction by 2030 and Canada's funds for oil and gas emissions) and others prioritizing high-emissions industries (e.g., Australia's push for coal mine expansion).
• The oil and gas sector has been the most active globally in lobbying governments for financial support and deregulation during the pandemic, including efforts in Canada to freeze the carbon tax.
• The author recommends specific co-benefits to align pandemic recovery with climate goals, including removing fossil fuel subsidies, implementing GHG reduction conditions for state bailouts, and investing in public works with dual climate benefits like energy efficiency and sustainable transport.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2020). Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses. https://saiia.org.za/research/implications-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-for-global-climate-change-responses/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses. 2020. https://saiia.org.za/research/implications-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-for-global-climate-change-responses/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses |date=5 August 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/implications-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-for-global-climate-change-responses/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2020implications, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for global climate change responses}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/implications-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-for-global-climate-change-responses/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }