Regimes and Industrialization

The study finds that autocratic regimes are systematically associated with higher levels of industrialization, measured by railway freight, energy consumption, and manufacturing value added. The authors attribute this to three mechanisms: the narrow social bases of autocracies (which benefit industrial elites), heightened security concerns (driving military-industrial capacity), and the availability of coercive policy tools to override opposition to dislocating industrial reforms.

• Autocratic regimes are more likely to adopt an economic development model centered on heavy industry due to differences in social bases, security concerns, and policy tools compared to democratic regimes.
• Autocracies have a significant advantage over democracies in promoting industrialization, which the authors describe as a marked exception to the typical 'democracy dividend' found in other policy outcomes.
• The narrow constituency base of autocracies provides an incentive to pursue industrial policies, as these policies can provide targeted economic benefits to powerful industrial elites whose support is essential for regime survival.
• Security concerns in autocracies, including internal dissent and external threats, drive the development of industrial capacity, particularly in transport infrastructure and heavy manufacturing like iron and steel, to enhance military capability.
• Autocratic regimes possess greater capabilities to implement aggressive industrialization because they can use coercion to override opposition from civil society and infringe upon property rights to build infrastructure.
• Empirical tests using a global dataset show a negative relationship between democracy (measured by Polyarchy stock) and three of four industrialization indicators: railway freight, energy consumption, and manufacturing value added.
• The relationship between autocracy and industrialization is not merely a result of the experiences of Communist countries or specific regions like East Asia, as results remained stable when these were omitted from the sample.
• While autocracies may excel at industrialization, this does not necessarily translate to higher GDP per capita growth, as industrial policies can be ineffective or expensive 'boondoggles'.
• The authors' findings are consistent with other research showing that democracies provide better public goods and higher wages, suggesting that autocracies prioritize industrial investment over broad social welfare.

APA

Gerring, J., Gjerløw, H., & Knutsen, C. H. (n.d.). Regimes and Industrialization. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2423fa96-4019-40ab-9b74-fbb149169003/Regimes and industrialization.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Gerring, John, Haakon Gjerløw, and Carl Henrik Knutsen. Regimes and Industrialization. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2423fa96-4019-40ab-9b74-fbb149169003/Regimes and industrialization.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gerring |first1=John |last2=Gjerløw |first2=Haakon |last3=Knutsen |first3=Carl Henrik |title=Regimes and Industrialization |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2423fa96-4019-40ab-9b74-fbb149169003/Regimes and industrialization.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gerringndregimes, author = {Gerring, John and Gjerløw, Haakon and Knutsen, Carl Henrik}, title = {{Regimes and Industrialization}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2423fa96-4019-40ab-9b74-fbb149169003/Regimes and industrialization.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }