Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario

This research paper presents the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Sierra Leone, integrating 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast economic and social development by 2043. The scenario projects significant increases in GDP per capita and a substantial reduction in poverty compared to a 'Current Path' forecast, though it also predicts higher carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, creates a 'synergistic effect' on GDP per capita estimated at US$269.2 in 2043. Among the individual components, the Agriculture and Free Trade scenarios are identified as having the greatest potential to improve economic and human development, while Health/WaSH and Governance have the least impact.
• By 2043, Sierra Leone's GDP per capita in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is estimated to reach US$4,304, which is US$1,840 higher than the Current Path forecast and US$514 above the projected average for low-income countries in Africa.
• The scenario projects a significant decline in poverty by 2043, with only 1.3 million people (10.3% of the population) living below the poverty line. This represents 3.9 million more people lifted out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path and a poverty rate 14.9 percentage points lower than the average for low-income African countries.
• The total GDP (MER) for 2043 is projected to be US$27.5 billion in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, making the economy 115% larger than the Current Path estimate of US$12.8 billion. The service, manufacturing, and ICT sectors are expected to be the largest contributors to GDP in the long term.
• Environmental impact is expected to increase under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Total carbon emissions, which were 0.52 million tons in 2019, are projected to rise to 3.3 million tons by 2043, exceeding the Current Path forecast of 2.2 million tons.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026sierra, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }