Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario for Sierra Leone projects a significant increase in GDP per capita to US$4,304 by 2043, driven primarily by agriculture and free trade. This scenario is estimated to lift an additional 3.9 million people out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path, reducing the poverty rate to 10.3%. While the overall economy is projected to grow to US$27.5 billion, with the service, manufacturing, and ICT sectors as the largest contributors, carbon emissions are expected to rise to 3.3 million tons, exceeding the Current Path estimate of 2.2 million tons.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to increase Sierra Leone's GDP per capita to US$4,304 by 2043, which is US$1,840 higher than the Current Path forecast and US$514 above the average for low-income African countries in 2043.
• Agriculture and Free Trade are identified as the scenarios with the highest potential to improve economic and human development in Sierra Leone, while Health/WaSH and Governance are projected to have the least impact on GDP per capita by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly reduce poverty, leaving only 1.3 million people (10.3% of the population) below the poverty line by 2043, effectively lifting 3.9 million more people out of extreme poverty than the Current Path.
• By 2043, the total GDP (MER) under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is estimated at US$27.5 billion, making the economy 115% larger than the Current Path estimate of US$12.8 billion. The service, manufacturing, and ICT sectors are projected to be the largest contributors to GDP.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to result in higher carbon emissions than the Current Path, with total emissions rising from 0.52 million tons in 2019 to 3.3 million tons by 2043, compared to 2.2 million tons in the Current Path forecast.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026sierra, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Sierra Leone Combined Agenda 2063 scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }