Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

The document analyzes Algeria's demographic transition, noting a decline in fertility rates and a projected population of 54 million by 2040. It highlights economic risks associated with an aging population and low female labor participation, while observing that a shrinking 'youth bulge' may reduce the likelihood of social instability compared to sub-Saharan Africa.

• Algeria's population is projected to grow by approximately 24% over the next 20 years, reaching nearly 54 million people by 2040 in the Current Path forecast.
• The total fertility rate (TFR) is expected to reach the replacement level of 2.1 births by 2035 and fall below two children per woman after 2040, potentially leading to a shrinking economy, increased health spending for the elderly, and a higher burden of non-communicable diseases.
• Despite a favorable working-age population, Algeria faces high unemployment and significantly low female labor participation, estimated at 18.5%, which is about 20.5 percentage points lower than its peers.
• Urbanization is high, with 74% of the population (32 million) living in coastal plain urban areas as of the reporting period, a figure projected to rise to 82% (44 million) by 2040.
• The 'youth bulge' (population aged 15-29) has declined from a peak of 52% in the 1980s to just over 30% today, which is expected to moderate the demographic tendency for social instability compared to sub-Saharan Africa, where the bulge is 48%.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=04-demographics

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=04-demographics.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=04-demographics |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=04-demographics}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }