Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

This report section analyzes Algeria's demographic trends and their implications for economic growth and social stability up to 2040. It highlights a declining fertility rate, a shifting dependency ratio, and the challenges of high unemployment and brain drain, while noting that a shrinking youth bulge may reduce the likelihood of social instability.

• Algeria's population is projected to grow from 43.5 million in 2020 to nearly 54 million by 2040, representing an approximate 24% increase. This growth rate is lower than averages for sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by declining fertility rates linked to urbanisation, modern contraceptives, and improved female education.
• The total fertility rate (TFR) is expected to reach the replacement level of 2.1 births by 2035 and fall below two children per woman after 2040. This demographic transition may lead to a shrinking economy, declining average per capita incomes, and increased health spending for an older population dealing with non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
• Algeria's ratio of working-age people to dependants is projected to remain above 1.7 until 2051, a threshold generally associated with more rapid economic growth. However, economic potential is hindered by high unemployment and low female labour participation, which was estimated at 18.5%—approximately 20.5 percentage points below its peers.
• Urbanisation is high, with 74% of the population (32 million) living in coastal plain urban areas in 2020, projected to rise to 82% (44 million) by 2040. This concentration is partly due to the inhospitable desert climate in the south.
• The 'youth bulge' (population aged 15-29) has declined from a peak of 52% in the 1980s to just over 30% today, which is significantly lower than sub-Saharan Africa's 48% and may moderate the tendency for social instability. Despite this, the country faces challenges with youth radicalisation, drug use, and brain drain, exemplified by an estimated 14,000 medical doctors working in France.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=04-demographics

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=04-demographics.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=04-demographics |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=04-demographics}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }