Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada

This research paper develops and tests indicators of adaptive capacity to climate change for agriculture across 53 Census Divisions in the Canadian Prairie region. Using a framework of six determinants—economic resources, technology, infrastructure, information/skills/management, institutions/networks, and equity—the authors created an aggregated index to identify regions of high and low adaptive capacity. The study finds that adaptive capacity is strongly correlated with proximity to urban centres and highlights a significant data gap regarding surface and groundwater resources. By comparing census-based indices with field interviews, the paper concludes that while statistical indicators provide a useful spatial perspective, site-specific research is essential for designing effective adaptation policies.

• Spatial analysis indicates that the highest adaptive capacity is clustered near large urban centres in three main corridors: Winnipeg (extending west to Brandon and south to the U.S. border), Saskatoon (extending southeast to Regina and west to the Alberta border), and Calgary (extending southeast to the U.S. border).
• Census Divisions with the lowest relative adaptive capacity are typically located along the northern boundaries of the Prairie agricultural region, with the exception of southwest and southeast Saskatchewan.
• The Census Division around Morden and Winkler in southern Manitoba was identified as the highest-ranking for adaptive capacity in the entire Prairie region, despite not being a large urban centre.
• The Interlake region in Manitoba, situated between Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba, exhibited the lowest adaptive capacity ranking (53rd) of all Prairie Census Divisions.
• Comparison between census-based indicators and field interviews revealed that while the six determinants generally reflect what producers value, only nine of the 15 reflective aspects were supported by indicators that accurately represented producer perspectives.
• Adaptive capacity is positively correlated with proximity to urban centres due to better access to off-farm earnings, diverse employment, computer technology, transportation networks, internet/email, and agricultural education institutions.
• The study suggests that policy interventions should focus on facilitating high-speed internet and computer education in remote rural areas, while giving special attention to non-urban correlated factors such as fair commodity prices, sustainable soil-management, and versatile farm equipment.

APA

Swanson, D., Hiley, J., Venema, H. D., & Grosshans, R. (2009). Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/pcr_adaptive_cap_ag.pdf

Chicago

Swanson, Darren, Jim Hiley, Henry David Venema, and Richard Grosshans. Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/pcr_adaptive_cap_ag.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Swanson |first1=Darren |last2=Hiley |first2=Jim |last3=Venema |first3=Henry David |last4=Grosshans |first4=Richard |title=Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=July 2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/pcr_adaptive_cap_ag.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{swanson2009indicators, author = {Swanson, Darren and Hiley, Jim and Venema, Henry David and Grosshans, Richard}, title = {{Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = jul, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/pcr_adaptive_cap_ag.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }