Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada

The research establishes a GIS-based index of adaptive capacity for the Canadian Prairies, using six determinants: economic resources, technology, information/skills/management, infrastructure, institutions/networks, and equity. The analysis finds that adaptive capacity is generally higher near large urban centres and lower along the northern boundaries of the agricultural region. While the six determinants align with producer perspectives, the study concludes that aggregated census data only accurately represent a fraction of the specific factors producers identify as critical for adaptation, emphasizing the need for site-specific research to inform policy.

• Adaptive capacity in the Prairie region is spatially clustered, with the highest levels found near large urban centres in three main corridors: Winnipeg (extending west to Brandon and south to the U.S. border), Saskatoon (extending southeast to Regina and west to the Alberta border), and Calgary (extending southeast to the U.S. border).
• The lowest relative adaptive capacity is typically found along the northern boundaries of the Prairie agricultural region, with the exception of southwest and southeast Saskatchewan.
• The Census Division around Morden and Winkler in southern Manitoba is the highest-ranking for adaptive capacity in the entire Prairie region, despite not being a large urban centre.
• The lowest-ranking Census Division in the entire region is Manitoba’s Interlake region, which is situated between Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba.
• Proximity to urban centres is positively correlated with adaptive capacity because it provides better access to off-farm earnings, diverse employment, computer technology, transportation networks, internet/email, and agricultural education institutions.
• Comparison with field interviews shows that while the six chosen determinants of adaptive capacity are a good reflection of producer experiences, only 9 of the 15 reflective aspects were supported by indicators that accurately represented what producers reported as important.

APA

Swanson, D., Hiley, J., Venema, H. D., & Grosshans, R. (2009). Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/pcr_adaptive_cap_ag.pdf

Chicago

Swanson, Darren, Jim Hiley, Henry David Venema, and Richard Grosshans. Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/pcr_adaptive_cap_ag.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Swanson |first1=Darren |last2=Hiley |first2=Jim |last3=Venema |first3=Henry David |last4=Grosshans |first4=Richard |title=Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=July 2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/pcr_adaptive_cap_ag.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{swanson2009indicators, author = {Swanson, Darren and Hiley, Jim and Venema, Henry David and Grosshans, Richard}, title = {{Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = jul, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/pcr_adaptive_cap_ag.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }