Papua New Guinea, Climate and Security

The document analyzes how climate change interacts with socio-political fragility in Papua New Guinea, highlighting risks such as food insecurity, illegal logging, and escalating tribal violence. It argues that these stressors, combined with geopolitical competition from China, threaten regional security. The author recommends that the U.S. provide technical assistance for renewable energy, establish a climate data platform, and support local NGOs and military disaster response capacity to mitigate these risks.

• Papua New Guinea is ranked as the 10th most vulnerable country to climate change, with an adaptive capacity estimated to be the 11th lowest globally.
• Climate projections for Papua New Guinea include temperatures rising faster than the global average, an increase in cyclone intensity, and a projected sea-level rise of approximately 20cm by 2035.
• Food security is severely threatened as 70% of households depend on subsistence agriculture, and key crops like sweet potatoes—which provide 63% of calories in rural areas—are projected to decline by 10% by 2050 due to climate impacts.
• Illegal logging has resulted in a loss of about 3% of forest cover since 2000, with Papua New Guinea's timber identified as among the riskiest globally due to corruption, bribery, and lack of indigenous consent.
• Climate change is expected to exacerbate tribal violence in the Highland regions, where temperatures are projected to climb the most, compounding existing tensions and a lack of civil and medical infrastructure.
• Geopolitical risks are increasing as Papua New Guinea and the Autonomous Region of Bougainville move toward China's sphere of influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

APA

Fleishman, R. (2022). Papua New Guinea, Climate and Security. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Papua-New-Guinea-Climate-and-Security_BRIEFER-33_2022_09_06.pdf

Chicago

Fleishman, Rachel. Papua New Guinea, Climate and Security. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Papua-New-Guinea-Climate-and-Security_BRIEFER-33_2022_09_06.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fleishman |first1=Rachel |title=Papua New Guinea, Climate and Security |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=7 September 2022 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Papua-New-Guinea-Climate-and-Security_BRIEFER-33_2022_09_06.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fleishman2022papua, author = {Fleishman, Rachel}, title = {{Papua New Guinea, Climate and Security}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = sep, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Papua-New-Guinea-Climate-and-Security_BRIEFER-33_2022_09_06.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }