Climate Risks to Indiad Internal Security

The document argues that while India's current internal security challenges—such as terrorism in Kashmir and Maoist insurgencies—are primarily driven by non-climate factors, future climate change will likely act as a risk multiplier. By 2050, increased temperature volatility, erratic monsoon patterns, and sea-level rise are projected to heighten human vulnerability. The authors identify three primary security pathways: rural unrest driven by agricultural distress and crop failure; tensions within India's federal structure caused by inter-state migration and river water disputes; and urban violence magnified by heat-induced aggression and food price hikes. The report emphasizes that at a 1.5°C global temperature rise, large portions of India enter a high-risk zone, potentially translating environmental stress into state security threats.

• India is highly vulnerable to climate change, with a significant portion of its population and land area entering high-risk zones even at a 1.5°C global mean temperature rise.
• Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and variability of the Indian summer monsoon, leading to more frequent extreme rainfall bursts and a higher risk of flooding, alongside increased drought risks in the dry season.
• Sea level rise poses a severe threat to low-lying coastal cities and river deltas; corrected elevation data suggests the vulnerable population in India could increase from 5 million to 36 million by 2050 under a moderate emissions scenario.
• Agricultural distress, characterized by falling incomes and crop failures, is a primary driver of rural vulnerability that could translate into state security challenges as climate change becomes the dominant stressor on livelihoods.
• Climate-induced migration and disputes over river water sharing may exacerbate tensions within India's federal structure, potentially fueling ethnic conflict or separatist movements.
• Environmental disasters may intensify existing insurgencies or alienation from the central government, specifically in regions like Kashmir and the northeast (Assam, Nagaland, and Manipur).
• Urban areas may experience increased violence due to the 'heat-aggression hypothesis,' where rising temperatures induce violent behavior in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods.

APA

Shidore, S., & Busby, J. W. (2020). Climate Risks to Indiad Internal Security. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/internalsecurity_shidorebusby.pdf

Chicago

Shidore, Sarang, and Joshua W. Busby. Climate Risks to Indiad Internal Security. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2020. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/internalsecurity_shidorebusby.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shidore |first1=Sarang |last2=Busby |first2=Joshua W. |title=Climate Risks to Indiad Internal Security |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=17 February 2020 |url=https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/internalsecurity_shidorebusby.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shidore2020climate, author = {Shidore, Sarang and Busby, Joshua W.}, title = {{Climate Risks to Indiad Internal Security}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2020}, month = feb, url = {https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/internalsecurity_shidorebusby.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }