The Triple Gap in Finance for Agrifood Systems

The report identifies a 'triple gap'—planning, finance, and data—in the transition of global agrifood systems. Top-down analysis estimates an annual need of USD 1.1 trillion to align with a 1.5°C pathway, while bottom-up estimates from NDCs total only USD 201.5 billion. Current annual climate finance flows of USD 28.5 billion are severely insufficient, requiring a 40-fold increase to meet top-down needs. The report highlights significant underestimations in national planning and a critical lack of granular data, particularly regarding adaptation and private finance.

• There is a massive 'finance gap' between current investment and the needs required for a 1.5°C pathway; annual climate finance flows to agrifood systems were USD 28.5 billion in 2019/20, but top-down estimates suggest a need for USD 1.1 trillion annually until 2030.
• A 'planning gap' exists because national governments significantly underestimate their funding needs in NDCs; the collective bottom-up annual need is estimated at USD 201.5 billion, which is roughly one-sixth of the top-down estimate.
• A 'data gap' is evident in the lack of sectoral breakdowns and underreporting in NDCs; only 37% of the 167 reviewed NDCs provided specific climate finance targets for agrifood systems, and agrifood needs account for only 15% of total funding needs reported in NDCs despite the sector causing a third of global GHG emissions.
• Top-down analysis identifies 'Policy, National Budget Support, and Capacity Building' as the largest area of need, representing 41% of annual requirements at USD 467.5 billion, with a heavy focus on realigning agricultural subsidies.
• Crop and livestock systems represent 28% of top-down needs (USD 316.7 billion), with the highest requirements in crop diversity, resilience, and emissions reduction within supply chains.
• Investments in 'Food and Diets' are severely underfunded, requiring USD 52.8 billion annually, but receiving only USD 100 million at the project level in 2019/20.
• Bottom-up needs are predominantly reported by developing economies, with the highest shares of costed needs found in sub-Saharan Africa (35%), Europe & Central Asia (35%), and Latin America & the Caribbean (33%).
• There is a significant reliance on international finance in NDCs, with 65% of reported agrifood climate finance needs being conditional, particularly in the Middle East & North Africa (74%) and East Asia & the Pacific (73%).
• Adaptation needs are likely underestimated due to costing challenges; while bottom-up sectoral needs are split almost equally between adaptation and mitigation, mitigation dominates at the solution level, comprising 75% of estimates.
• A substantial opportunity exists to bridge the finance gap by repurposing harmful agricultural subsidies, which reached USD 851 billion per year from 2020-22, with over 60% being market-distorting and environmentally harmful.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2025). The Triple Gap in Finance for Agrifood Systems. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/The-Triple-Gap-in-Climate-Finance-Needs-for-Agrifood-Systems.pdf

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. The Triple Gap in Finance for Agrifood Systems. 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/The-Triple-Gap-in-Climate-Finance-Needs-for-Agrifood-Systems.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=The Triple Gap in Finance for Agrifood Systems |date=February 2025 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/The-Triple-Gap-in-Climate-Finance-Needs-for-Agrifood-Systems.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2025triple, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{The Triple Gap in Finance for Agrifood Systems}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = feb, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/The-Triple-Gap-in-Climate-Finance-Needs-for-Agrifood-Systems.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }