Créditos de Carbono na Amazônia

The report introduces a dynamic economic model to determine the additionality of REDD projects in the Brazilian Amazon, finding that 77% of the carbon traded is additional. It highlights regional variations, noting higher additionality in agribusiness-consolidated areas and lower additionality in isolated regions like Portel, while suggesting that higher carbon prices would further increase additionality rates.

• A new methodology developed by CPI/PUC-Rio evaluates the risk of deforestation by integrating statistical, spatial, and economic components, specifically analyzing the most profitable land use for producers based on agricultural prices, carbon prices, transport costs, and productivity.
• Applying this methodology to the current REDD project portfolio in the Brazilian Amazon reveals that 77% of the carbon stock in these properties is additional, meaning it would have been emitted without the projects. Conversely, 23% of the forest areas would have remained preserved regardless of project incentives.
• Additionality rates vary significantly by Amazonian region: non-forest areas show the highest additionality at 98.5%, followed by deforested areas at 93.8%, forest areas at 79.4%, and areas under pressure at 72.7%.
• The municipality of Portel, Pará, exhibits particularly low additionality because its properties have low agricultural productivity and high transport costs, making forest preservation the most viable option even without carbon credits. Excluding Portel's properties would increase the total additionality of the analyzed portfolio from 77% to 89%.
• Current REDD credit prices (US$ 5 to US$ 15 per tCO2e) are significantly lower than the global average for other carbon pricing mechanisms (US$ 35 per tCO2e). Simulations suggest that if REDD prices aligned with the global average, additionality would rise to over 86%.

APA

Arbache, J. P. F. (2025). Créditos de Carbono na Amazônia. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Creditos-de-Carbono-na-Amazonia.pdf

Chicago

Arbache, João Pedro Ferreira. Créditos de Carbono na Amazônia. Climate Policy Initiative, 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Creditos-de-Carbono-na-Amazonia.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Arbache |first1=João Pedro Ferreira |title=Créditos de Carbono na Amazônia |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=September 2025 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Creditos-de-Carbono-na-Amazonia.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{arbache2025crditos, author = {Arbache, João Pedro Ferreira}, title = {{Créditos de Carbono na Amazônia}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Creditos-de-Carbono-na-Amazonia.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }