Carbon Credits in the Amazon

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-RIO) introduces a new economic-based methodology to assess the additionality of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) carbon projects in the Brazilian Amazon. The study finds that 77% of the carbon traded in these projects is additional, meaning the forests would have been cleared without the projects' incentives. The report highlights regional variations in additionality and discusses the impact of land tenure issues and low agricultural productivity on project integrity, specifically citing the case of Portel, Pará.

• A new methodology developed by CPI/PUC-RIO assesses REDD project additionality by integrating statistical, spatial, and economic analyses to determine the most profitable land use for landowners, considering factors like agricultural and carbon prices, transportation costs, and productivity.
• Analysis using the proposed methodology reveals that 77% of the carbon stock in REDD projects within the Brazilian Amazon is additional, effectively avoiding the emission of 0.5 Gt of CO2 equivalent.
• Additionality rates vary significantly across different regions of the Amazon biome: non-forest regions show the highest additionality at 98.5%, followed by deforested regions (93.8%), forested regions (79.4%), and under pressure regions (72.7%).
• The municipality of Portel, Pará, demonstrates a specific challenge where additionality is lower (57%) because low agricultural productivity and high transportation costs make farming unviable, meaning forests would likely remain even without carbon credits.
• The report identifies that properties with larger areas, higher carbon stocks, lower transportation costs, and high agricultural productivity are more likely to have higher additionality because they face a greater risk of deforestation for agriculture.

APA

Arbache, J. P. (2025). Carbon Credits in the Amazon. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Carbon-Credits-in-the-Amazon.pdf

Chicago

Arbache, João Pedro. Carbon Credits in the Amazon. Climate Policy Initiative, 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Carbon-Credits-in-the-Amazon.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Arbache |first1=João Pedro |title=Carbon Credits in the Amazon |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=September 2025 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Carbon-Credits-in-the-Amazon.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{arbache2025carbon, author = {Arbache, João Pedro}, title = {{Carbon Credits in the Amazon}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Carbon-Credits-in-the-Amazon.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }