Climate data and projections: supporting evidence-based decision-making in the Caribbean

The document introduces the CARIWIG portal, which provides downscaled regional climate projections, historical data, and simulation tools for tropical storms and drought to help Caribbean decision-makers integrate climate risk into planning. It emphasizes that while these tools provide high-resolution data relevant to national levels, the process of downscaling increases uncertainty, necessitating a shift toward 'robust' adaptation strategies and 'no regret' options.

• The CARIWIG portal provides decision-makers with historical climate data, regional climate change projections, local weather projections, and simulations of hypothetical tropical storms.
• Regional climate model data, such as those from the PRECIS model used by CARIWIG, are created by 'downscaling' global climate models to a 25-kilometre resolution, which is more relevant for Small Island Developing States than global models resolved at 110 kilometres or more.
• The process of downscaling increases overall uncertainty because regional models inherit the uncertainties of the global models they are based on and add further uncertainty from the downscaling process itself.
• CARIWIG's PRECIS model has known limitations, including a tendency toward a negative precipitation bias and a failure to fully account for local phenomena like the mid-summer drought and the Caribbean low-level jet stream.
• The CARiDRO tool allows users to assess atmospheric and hydrological drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI).
• Case studies demonstrate the practical application of CARIWIG data: in Belize, it was used to project that tomato yields would halve by the end of the century; in Saint Lucia, it informed river flow studies; and in Barbados, it helped estimate wind speed for coastal zone management.
• Due to climate projection uncertainties, decision-makers are encouraged to adopt 'robust' adaptation, focusing on 'no regret' and 'low regret' options and employing adaptive management that evolves as new evidence emerges.

APA

Bugler, W., Palin, O., & Rabb, B. (2017). Climate data and projections: supporting evidence-based decision-making in the Caribbean. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Caribbean-climate-PB_F_updated_03-05-17_WEB.pdf

Chicago

Bugler, Will, Olivia Palin, and Ben Rabb. Climate data and projections: supporting evidence-based decision-making in the Caribbean. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2017. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Caribbean-climate-PB_F_updated_03-05-17_WEB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bugler |first1=Will |last2=Palin |first2=Olivia |last3=Rabb |first3=Ben |title=Climate data and projections: supporting evidence-based decision-making in the Caribbean |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=March 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Caribbean-climate-PB_F_updated_03-05-17_WEB.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bugler2017climate, author = {Bugler, Will and Palin, Olivia and Rabb, Ben}, title = {{Climate data and projections: supporting evidence-based decision-making in the Caribbean}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = mar, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Caribbean-climate-PB_F_updated_03-05-17_WEB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }