Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This briefing note presents an economic assessment of Uganda's energy sector supply and demand projections to 2050, utilizing the LEAP model to evaluate the impacts of climate change and potential adaptation strategies.

• Uganda's energy supply is currently dominated by traditional biomass, but a significant deficit is projected for the 2020s and beyond. A 'Business as Usual' growth scenario for biomass demand is considered unsustainable, necessitating solutions such as increasing the use of electricity or LPG for households, or importing approximately 2.2 million tons of biomass per year over the next 40 years.
• Climate change is expected to reduce biomass availability, with a plausible loss of 5 to 10 percent of domestic wood between 2020 and 2050. Addressing this gap would require additional expenditures of US$0.6-1.3 billion if filled with imported biomass, or between US$5-11 billion if filled with LPG.
• Precipitation declines linked to climate change could reduce hydropower potential by approximately 26 percent by 2050. While the government's current expansion programme is deemed sufficient to cover this deficit if implemented on schedule, it is highly resource-intensive, requiring an estimated US$83 billion in additional capital investment for hydro, nuclear, and other generation by 2050.
• The government of Uganda's Costed Implementation Strategy prioritizes reducing biomass dependence and promoting energy conservation to lower GHG emissions. However, the strategy lacks components to encourage households dependent on traditional biomass to switch to modern energy; the report suggests that developing alternative fuel programs (such as LPG, kerosene, or imported biomass) should be a priority as benefits exceed costs.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Energy-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Energy-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Energy-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndeconomic, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Energy-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }