Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

The document assesses climate change impacts on Uganda's agricultural sector, projecting significant losses for export crops like coffee and certain food crops by 2050, while identifying droughts and floods as the most immediate adaptation priorities.

• By 2050, overall losses for food crops are projected to be no more than US$1.5 billion, which would represent less than 0.2 percent of GDP under assumed economic growth. While most of the 11 modelled food crops show production reductions, impacts vary by region, with the East and North experiencing the largest effects. Specific crops such as cassava, potato, and sweet potato could see reductions of around 40 percent, while millet, sorghum, and pigeon peas are expected to see reductions of less than 10 percent.
• Agricultural exports are expected to be strongly affected by climate change by 2050 without adaptation. Coffee yield losses could range from 50-75% due to yield reductions and loss of suitable growing areas. A 50% reduction in combined Arabica and Robusta coffee production would result in losses of approximately US$1,235 million, while a 75% reduction would cost about US$1,850 million. Combined losses for coffee and tea from a 50% production reduction are estimated at US$1,400 million.
• Extreme weather events are identified as a more critical threat for some products than decreased yields. The 2010-11 drought caused estimated losses of US$470 million across food crops, cash crops, and livestock, representing about 16 percent of the total value of these items in 2011 GDP. The 2008 drought caused annual crop damage of US$47 million, roughly 3 percent of the value of all cash and food crops.
• The immediate adaptation priority is addressing the threat from droughts and floods. The Government of Uganda has proposed a budget of approximately US$297 million over 15 years for eight agricultural adaptation areas. The study suggests that many of these measures have potentially high benefits relative to costs and should be initiated now to allow for testing and development of robust programmes.
• Modelling for livestock production suggests small impacts on yield and area (1 to 2 percent), but notes that primary impacts are likely to stem from diseases, floods, and droughts.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_-Agricultural_Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_-Agricultural_Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_-Agricultural_Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndeconomic, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_-Agricultural_Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }