Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This briefing note presents an economic assessment of climate change impacts on Uganda's agricultural sector, focusing on food crops, livestock, and export crops up to 2050. It highlights the significant risks posed by extreme weather events and the necessity of immediate adaptation actions.

• By 2050, overall economic losses for food crops are projected to be no more than US$1.5 billion, which would represent less than 0.2 percent of GDP under assumed economic growth. While most of the 11 modelled food crops show production reductions, the impact varies by region, with the East and North experiencing the largest impacts. Specific crops like cassava, potato, and sweet potato could see reductions of around 40 percent, while millet, sorghum, and pigeon peas are expected to see reductions of less than 10 percent.
• Agricultural exports, which made up about 50 percent of Uganda's total export value in 2013, face significant risks. Coffee, which contributes about 18% of total exports, could see yield losses of 50-75% by 2050 due to yield reductions and loss of suitable growing areas. A 50% reduction in combined Arabica and Robusta coffee production would result in losses of approximately US$1,235 million in 2050, while a 75% reduction would result in losses of about US$1,850 million. Combined losses for coffee and tea at a 50% production reduction could cost about US$1,400 million in 2050.
• Extreme weather events such as droughts and floods are identified as a more immediate and significant threat to some agricultural products than gradual yield decreases. For example, the 2010-11 drought caused estimated losses of about US$470 million across food crops, cash crops, and livestock, representing 16 percent of the total value of these items in the 2011 GDP. The 2008 drought caused annual crop damage of US$47 million, approximately 3 percent of the value of all cash and food crops.
• The Government of Uganda has identified eight adaptation areas for agriculture in its National Climate Change Costed Implementation Strategy, with a proposed 15-year budget of about US$297 million. The report concludes that the immediate priority for adaptation is addressing the current threat from droughts and floods. Many proposed measures are considered to have potentially high benefits relative to their costs and should be initiated now to allow for testing and development.
• Modelling for livestock production suggests relatively small impacts on yield and area, estimated at 1 or 2 percent. However, the report notes that the primary impacts on livestock are likely to stem from other factors such as diseases, floods, and droughts rather than yield and area alone.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_-Agricultural_Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_-Agricultural_Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_-Agricultural_Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndeconomic, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_-Agricultural_Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }