Modelling Mozambique's low-emissions future

This case study describes the use of LEAP and REDD Abacus modelling tools to develop low-emissions pathways for Mozambique, specifically focusing on solar-powered irrigation and agroforestry to reduce emissions in the energy and agriculture sectors.

• Mozambique is highly vulnerable to climate change, with significant impacts from extreme weather. In 2015, floods affected more than 160,000 people, and Tropical Storm Dando caused major damage and flooding in 2012. The population is further threatened by sea level rise along the coastline and risks to health and economic stability due to a heavy dependence on rain-fed farming and fishing.
• The 2012 National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy (NCCAMS) serves as the framework for Mozambique's low-carbon ambitions. It aims to promote a green economy and low-carbon development by integrating mitigation and adaptation into local and sectorial planning, specifically targeting sustainable agriculture and improved access to renewable energy.
• LEDS GP provided technical support using two specific models to test mitigation scenarios in priority sectors: the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) for energy and the REDD Abacus model for agriculture. LEAP found that replacing fuel-powered irrigation with solar-powered systems would reduce annual emissions from 14,735 tCO2-eq to 11,092 tCO2-eq by 2030. The REDD Abacus model indicated that replacing traditional slash-and-burn agriculture for cassava and maize with agroforestry would reduce annual emissions from 5.8 million tCO2-eq to 1.8 million tCO2-eq.

APA

Sitoe, A., Cox, S., & Woods, T. (n.d.). Modelling Mozambique's low-emissions future. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/story/mozambique

Chicago

Sitoe, Almeida, Sadie Cox, and Tim Woods. Modelling Mozambique's low-emissions future. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. https://cdkn.org/story/mozambique.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sitoe |first1=Almeida |last2=Cox |first2=Sadie |last3=Woods |first3=Tim |title=Modelling Mozambique's low-emissions future |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=https://cdkn.org/story/mozambique |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sitoendmodelling, author = {Sitoe, Almeida and Cox, Sadie and Woods, Tim}, title = {{Modelling Mozambique's low-emissions future}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/story/mozambique}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }