Refinery of the Future

The report provides a detailed market assessment of the refining industry in four key regions, analyzing the transition from traditional crude-based products to low-carbon alternatives like SAF, green ammonia, and e-methanol, while evaluating the impact of regional climate policies.

• The United States refining capacity decreased by 5.4% from a 2019 peak of 18.98 mmb/d to approximately 18.0 mmb/d as of January 1, 2022, with the number of operational refineries falling from 141 in 2017 to 125 in 2022.
• In the US, gasoline represents the largest single product demand at just under 9 mmb/d, accounting for over 40% of total oil demand, while the US Department of Energy aims for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to meet 100% of aviation fuel demand (approximately 35 billion gallons per year) by 2050.
• The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) refining capacity was approximately 7 mmb/d as of December 2021, led by Saudi Arabia with 3.327 mmb/d. The region is shifting toward higher-value petrochemicals, with oil demand from the petrochemical sector in the Middle East expected to grow from 1.2 mmb/d in 2021 to 2.6 mmb/d by 2045.
• GCC countries are focusing on green hydrogen and green ammonia projects to diversify from fossil fuels, but have negligible biofuel production due to a lack of legislation and limited feedstock.
• European refining capacity exceeded 14 million barrels per calendar day in December 2022, though it has declined since 2008 due to competition from the GCC and Russia. The region is heavily reliant on middle distillate imports because its refineries are primarily geared for gasoline production.
• The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation initiative sets a blending requirement for SAF starting at 2% in 2025 and increasing to 63% by 2050, while the UK's Jet Zero Strategy targets at least 10% SAF use by 2030.
• Singapore's refining capacity is 1.5 million barrels per day, with a product profile heavily weighted toward bunker fuel (residual and distillate) and jet fuel. The state aims for a 100% electric vehicle (EV) fleet by 2040 and a reduction in land transportation emissions by 80% by 2050.
• Singapore is positioning itself as a global trading hub for low-carbon fuels, including green ammonia and SAF, as it lacks the land area for significant domestic production.
• Global demand for naphtha is expected to increase its share of oil demand from 14% to 16% by 2050, driven primarily by the growth of the petrochemical industry in China, India, and other Asian countries.

APA

Clean Air Task Force (2024). Refinery of the Future. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/29181517/refinery-of-the-future-market-assessment.pdf

Chicago

Clean Air Task Force. Refinery of the Future. 2024. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/29181517/refinery-of-the-future-market-assessment.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Clean Air Task Force |title=Refinery of the Future |date=25 February 2024 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/29181517/refinery-of-the-future-market-assessment.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleanairtaskforce2024refinery, author = {{Clean Air Task Force}}, title = {{Refinery of the Future}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2024}, month = feb, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/29181517/refinery-of-the-future-market-assessment.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }