Industrial and Trade Policy Questions Confronting Africa in a Just Transition to a Lower Carbon Economy

This research paper argues that for Africa to achieve a 'just transition' to a lower carbon economy, it must move from being a consumer to a producer of green technologies. The author emphasizes the need for strategic industrial policy, the utilization of the AfCFTA to create regional value chains, and the preservation of policy space against premature trade liberalization and 'green-washed protectionism' from developed nations.

• Africa faces significant risks in the transition to a lower carbon economy, including the potential to become a 'net loser' if its high-carbon activities are shut down without a corresponding shift toward producing cleaner technologies. In South Africa, the estimated cost of transitions to meet Paris commitments is approximately R 1.8 trillion in decommissioned assets, which represents about 60% of its GDP.
• To ensure an equitable share of economic benefits, Africa must transition from being a mere consumer of green products to a producer of value-added lower-carbon technologies. Examples of potential local production include wind towers, blades, solar water heaters, photovoltaic cells, and electric or fuel-cell-driven vehicles.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is identified as a critical mechanism for establishing regional value chains for renewable energy and green technology. However, this requires purposeful action through industrial policy tools, such as developmental finance, incentives, localization in public procurement, and resisting premature liberalization toward third parties.
• The document warns against 'green-washed protectionism' by developed countries, specifically citing border adjustment taxes that restrict imports from developing countries not meeting certain carbon reduction levels. It argues that any implementation measures for carbon targets must be agreed upon multilaterally through COP processes.
• The author argues that Africa must preserve its 'policy space' to nurture green industries, citing China's industrialization as a model where strategic trade liberalization was guided by industrial policy rather than immediate, open access to its own market.
• There is an urgent need for 'climate proofing' infrastructure to withstand inevitable extreme weather events. This includes making roads, railways, and housing robust against flooding and storms, identifying new water resources for water-scarce areas, and implementing defensive measures for coastal cities.

APA

Davies, R. (2021). Industrial and Trade Policy Questions Confronting Africa in a Just Transition to a Lower Carbon Economy. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/industrial-and-trade-policy-questions-confronting-africa-in-a-just-transition-to-a-lower-carbon-economy-32

Chicago

Davies, Rob. Industrial and Trade Policy Questions Confronting Africa in a Just Transition to a Lower Carbon Economy. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2021. https://afripoli.org/industrial-and-trade-policy-questions-confronting-africa-in-a-just-transition-to-a-lower-carbon-economy-32.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Davies |first1=Rob |title=Industrial and Trade Policy Questions Confronting Africa in a Just Transition to a Lower Carbon Economy |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=26 October 2021 |url=https://afripoli.org/industrial-and-trade-policy-questions-confronting-africa-in-a-just-transition-to-a-lower-carbon-economy-32 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{davies2021industrial, author = {Davies, Rob}, title = {{Industrial and Trade Policy Questions Confronting Africa in a Just Transition to a Lower Carbon Economy}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {https://afripoli.org/industrial-and-trade-policy-questions-confronting-africa-in-a-just-transition-to-a-lower-carbon-economy-32}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }