Search Climate Insights Directory

This executive summary describes the States’ Electricity Transition (SET) Scoring system developed by Ember to evaluate the electricity transition across 16 Indian states, which represent 90% of India's annual power requirement. The analysis focuses on four dimensions: decarbonisation, power system performance, power ecosystem readiness, and policies and political commitments. While some states like Karnataka show strong performance across all metrics, others, particularly Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, require significant improvements in decarbonisation and system performance to meet national targets.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the EU saw a record increase in wind and solar generation, which together provided 23% of total electricity. This growth saved the EU €12 billion in avoided gas costs and contributed to a significant drop in Russian gas import reliance, from approximately 40% before the invasion to 16% in the period analyzed.

The report argues that Poland's draft PEP2040 energy strategy is significantly under-ambitious, risking the country's position as the last major EU economy reliant on fossil fuels by 2030. While the government proposes a 50% share of renewables in power by 2040 (roughly 50-60 GW), the report suggests Poland could realistically reach 100 GW of renewable capacity by 2040. To achieve this, the document emphasizes the need to remove permitting barriers, such as the 10H spatial planning rule, and modernize grid infrastructure to prevent connection bottlenecks. Furthermore, it argues that prioritizing renewables would make the debate between coal and gas obsolete, as Poland could halve its planned gas-fired generation to 29 TWh by 2030 while maintaining system balance.

In 2022, the EU electricity mix was led by nuclear (22%), gas (20%), coal (16%), and wind (15%), with solar accounting for 7.3%. While solar and wind continued their long-term growth trends, nuclear and hydro experienced significant declines due to plant closures and drought. Coal saw a temporary increase to offset these losses, while gas remained the only fossil fuel to show growth over the last two decades.

The report asserts that Europe can transition to a clean electricity system by 2035 without additional costs beyond stated plans or compromising energy security. It highlights that wind and solar power are the primary technologies available to displace fossil fuels and reduce reliance on imported energy. While the UK, Germany, and the G7 have set targets for decarbonised power by 2035, the document notes a lack of a unified signal from the EU and Europe, calling for increased investment and the removal of infrastructure barriers.

In 2022, wind and solar generated a record 22% of EU electricity, overtaking fossil gas (20%). Despite this, EU power sector emissions rose by 3.9% due to a 185 TWh generation gap caused by a severe drought affecting hydro power and unexpected French nuclear outages. This gap was partially filled by a 7% increase in coal generation. However, electricity demand fell by 7.9% in Q4 2022, and coal generation declined in the final four months of the year. Ember projects a 20% plummet in EU fossil generation in 2023 as hydro and nuclear capacity recover and renewable deployment accelerates.

In 2022, EU electricity demand fell by 2.7% to 2809 TWh, driven by mild weather and demand reduction measures. Despite this, power sector CO2 emissions rose by 3.9% due to shortfalls in nuclear and hydro generation, which necessitated increased fossil fuel use. Wind and solar generation continued to grow, reaching a 22% market share, while nuclear generation fell to its lowest share in 40 years at 22%.

In 2022, the EU experienced a temporary 7% rise in coal generation driven by shortfalls in nuclear and hydro power, rather than a structural 'return to coal'. This was offset by a record surge in solar capacity and a significant 7.9% drop in electricity demand in Q4 2022. Solar power generated 7.3% of EU electricity, avoiding approximately 249 billion in gas import costs. Looking ahead to 2023, the report forecasts a potential 20% plummet in fossil fuel generation as French nuclear capacity returns and renewable capacity continues to grow.

The report highlights that methane emissions from coking coal mining add approximately 27% to the 20-year global warming impact of the steel industry. It argues that while the sector focuses on carbon capture (CCUS) and hydrogen, it ignores readily available technologies to reduce CMM. The document recommends that steelmakers only purchase coal from suppliers with net-zero compatible methane reduction plans and that policymakers include methane in carbon border adjustment mechanisms.

Ember employs a scoring system from 0 to 6 to assess the reliability of country-level coal mine methane (CMM) emissions reporting. The score is derived from three categories: the recency of UNFCCC reporting, the similarity of reported data to independent estimates from the IEA, GEM, and satellite observations, and the robustness of the estimation methods (UNFCCC tiers). The methodology includes specific adjustments for countries with significant changes in coal production, low-emitting countries, and the proportion of surface versus underground mining.

The briefing argues that adopting a 45% renewable energy target by 2030 would halve EU fossil gas imports compared to the 40% target in the Fit for 55 plan, resulting in €43 billion in additional savings in 2030 and an estimated €200 billion between 2025 and 2030. It warns that relying on LNG diversification creates new dependencies and exposes the EU to global price shocks and high methane emissions, particularly from the US. The analysis highlights that countries like Italy, France, and Poland would see significant cost reductions, while warning that Poland's current plans for increased gas power generation could lead to power shortages and reduced competitiveness.

Ember provides comments on India's draft National Electricity Plan (Vol.I: Generation), arguing that the plan's projections may fall short of India's 2030 non-fossil fuel targets and that peak demand estimates are potentially overestimated. The document warns that overestimating demand could lead to excessive investment in coal capacity, potentially creating 'zombie plants'. Ember suggests implementing periodic stock-taking of coal targets and a temporary stay on new coal proposals to better align with renewable energy goals and battery storage growth.

The briefing examines the REPowerEU plan's reliance on bioenergy to replace fossil gas and proposes alternatives to avoid this increase. It suggests that deploying an additional 100 GW of solar power by 2030 would allow the EU to meet its 45% renewable energy target while keeping bioenergy levels consistent with the Fit for 55 package. The document further asserts that bioenergy use could be reduced below current levels through faster heat electrification and higher energy efficiency targets, such as the European Parliament's proposal for a 14.5% efficiency target.

Ember argues that approving 15 reconsidered coal projects would increase Australia's annual coal mine methane emissions by approximately 190 thousand tonnes. The organization emphasizes that meeting the 1.5C warming limit requires a 75% reduction in energy sector methane emissions by 2030, which cannot be achieved through mitigation technology alone without reducing coal production. Ember specifically recommends closing the gassiest thermal coal mines and avoiding new thermal coal mines, while suggesting that metallurgical coal mines only be approved if they employ available mitigation technologies and cooperate with the UNEP’s International Methane Emissions Observatory.

The document outlines the methodology for calculating the amount of fossil fuels displaced by solar energy and the associated avoided costs. It describes the use of Ember's electricity datasets, IEA thermal efficiency and calorific value data, and UN Comtrade trade data to build linear regression models for fuel pricing. The analysis assumes solar replaces the cheapest fossil fuel generation in each country, with a specific exception for Indonesia where oil is replaced first.

Solar generation in seven Asian countries avoided approximately US$34 billion in fossil fuel costs in the first half of 2022. The report highlights rapid capacity growth in China, India, and Viet Nam, while noting that solar capacity across five key Asian economies is expected to grow by an average of 22% annually until 2030. However, the transition faces hurdles including grid instability in Viet Nam, high installation costs in Japan and South Korea, and policy bottlenecks in the Philippines and Thailand.

The document argues that coal mine methane (CMM) is a critical but underreported driver of emissions in New South Wales, accounting for over 90% of the state's energy sector methane emissions. Ember proposes two new pillars for the NSW EPA's Action Plan: 'Inform and Plan' and 'Mitigate'. The 'Inform and Plan' pillar suggests collaborating with international initiatives like the International Methane Emissions Observatory and implementing high-tier IPCC measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) methodologies to address reporting gaps. The 'Mitigate' pillar recommends a 75% reduction target for methane emissions by 2030, the closure of 'gassy' thermal coal mines, and a commitment to no new coal mines or expansions. The report highlights that current reporting may be significantly underestimated, citing IEA estimates that Australia's reported CMM emissions could be missing 800 thousand tonnes.

The document argues that power grids must become the backbone of the energy system to achieve a carbon-neutral economy by 2050, transporting 50% or more of Europe's energy. It identifies critical barriers including underinvestment, lack of data transparency, inefficient connection queues, and fragmented system planning. Ember recommends shifting to a "first ready, first served" approach for grid connections, introducing clear investment incentives, and establishing an integrated, system-level planning framework coordinated by an independent body to ensure grid development anticipates rather than lags behind clean energy growth.

Between October 2021 and September 2022, wind and solar energy became the primary source of electricity in Chile, accounting for 27.5% of generation and surpassing coal at 26.5%. This shift follows a period of rapid growth where wind and solar generation doubled between 2018 and 2021. Since 2016, these renewable sources have fully met the growth in electricity demand, contributing to a 6% reduction in annual CO2 emissions between 2016 and 2021 despite an 11% increase in demand. The report highlights Chile's progress toward its goals of 80% renewable electricity by 2030 and a zero-emissions grid by 2050, noting the closure of 8 coal plants as part of a broader decarbonization plan.

For the first time, wind and solar generated more of Chile's electricity than coal over a 12-month period (October 2021 to September 2022), with wind and solar accounting for 27.5% and coal 26.5%. Since 2016, wind and solar have met all growth in electricity demand, contributing to a 6% drop in annual power sector emissions between 2016 and 2021 despite an 11% increase in demand. Chile aims for 80% renewable electricity by 2030 and a zero-emissions grid by 2050, though the report notes that IEA guidelines suggest a coal phase-out by 2030 for OECD countries.