PEP2040: Progress or disappointment?

This briefing by Ember and the Reform Institute analyzes the draft revisions to Poland's energy strategy to 2040 (PEP2040). It argues that the current draft is under-ambitious regarding renewable energy and over-reliant on gas, risking Poland's economic competitiveness and energy security by potentially making it the last major EU economy dependent on fossil fuels by 2030.

• Poland's current draft energy strategy risks leaving the country as the only major EU economy, besides Malta, that generates more than 50% of its electricity from fossil fuels by 2030.
• Poland could realistically achieve 100 GW of renewable capacity by 2040, which is double the target proposed in the government's draft assumptions of approximately 50-60 GW.
• Poland's renewable capacity reached 22 GW in 2022, meaning it met its original 2030 government target eight years ahead of schedule.
• The current PEP2040 plan is insufficient for meeting EU climate goals; it projects a 58% reduction in power sector emissions by 2040 compared to 2015, whereas EU targets would require a reduction of 90% or more.
• The briefing suggests that Poland could halve its planned gas-fired electricity generation for 2030, reducing it from the 53 TWh assumed in PEP2040 to 29 TWh, while limiting coal's share of electricity to 12%.
• Critical barriers to renewable expansion in Poland include the '10H' spatial planning rule for onshore wind and grid infrastructure bottlenecks, with nearly 15 GW of projects denied grid connection in 2021.

APA

Czyżak, D. P., Śniegocki, A., & Wetmańska, Z. (2023). PEP2040: Progress or disappointment? Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Briefing_-PEP2040-targets.pdf

Chicago

Czyżak, Dr Paweł, Aleksander Śniegocki, and Zofia Wetmańska. PEP2040: Progress or disappointment? Ember, 2023. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Briefing_-PEP2040-targets.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Czyżak |first1=Dr Paweł |last2=Śniegocki |first2=Aleksander |last3=Wetmańska |first3=Zofia |title=PEP2040: Progress or disappointment? |publisher=Ember |date=6 February 2023 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Briefing_-PEP2040-targets.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{czyak2023pep2040, author = {Czyżak, Dr Paweł and Śniegocki, Aleksander and Wetmańska, Zofia}, title = {{PEP2040: Progress or disappointment?}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Briefing_-PEP2040-targets.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }