PEP2040: Progress or disappointment?

The report argues that Poland's draft PEP2040 energy strategy is significantly under-ambitious, risking the country's position as the last major EU economy reliant on fossil fuels by 2030. While the government proposes a 50% share of renewables in power by 2040 (roughly 50-60 GW), the report suggests Poland could realistically reach 100 GW of renewable capacity by 2040. To achieve this, the document emphasizes the need to remove permitting barriers, such as the 10H spatial planning rule, and modernize grid infrastructure to prevent connection bottlenecks. Furthermore, it argues that prioritizing renewables would make the debate between coal and gas obsolete, as Poland could halve its planned gas-fired generation to 29 TWh by 2030 while maintaining system balance.

• Poland's current draft energy plans risk making it the only major EU economy, aside from Malta, that still generates more than 50% of its electricity from fossil fuels by 2030.
• Poland could realistically achieve 100 GW of renewable capacity by 2040, which is double the target proposed in the government's draft assumptions of 50-60 GW.
• Poland's renewable capacity reached 22 GW in 2022, meaning the government's 2030 target was met eight years ahead of schedule.
• The draft PEP2040 targets only a 58% reduction in power sector emissions by 2040 compared to 2015, whereas models aligned with EU targets suggest a reduction of 90% or more is necessary.
• Grid infrastructure is a critical bottleneck; in 2021 alone, nearly 15 GW of potential renewable projects were denied grid connections.
• The restrictive '10H' spatial planning rule continues to block onshore wind potential, and current permitting procedures fail to meet the 24-month standard set by the 2018 EU renewables directive.
• Poland could reduce its planned gas-fired electricity generation in 2030 by half, using 29 TWh instead of the 53 TWh assumed in PEP2040, while limiting coal's share to 12%.

APA

Czyżak, D. P., Śniegocki, A., & Wetmańska, Z. (2023). PEP2040: Progress or disappointment? Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Briefing_-PEP2040-targets.pdf

Chicago

Czyżak, Dr Paweł, Aleksander Śniegocki, and Zofia Wetmańska. PEP2040: Progress or disappointment? Ember, 2023. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Briefing_-PEP2040-targets.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Czyżak |first1=Dr Paweł |last2=Śniegocki |first2=Aleksander |last3=Wetmańska |first3=Zofia |title=PEP2040: Progress or disappointment? |publisher=Ember |date=6 February 2023 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Briefing_-PEP2040-targets.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{czyak2023pep2040, author = {Czyżak, Dr Paweł and Śniegocki, Aleksander and Wetmańska, Zofia}, title = {{PEP2040: Progress or disappointment?}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Briefing_-PEP2040-targets.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }