The Sunny Side of Asia

This methodology document outlines how Ember estimates the fossil fuels and costs avoided through solar energy generation in Asia. It details the use of counterfactual scenarios for fuel substitution, the application of linear regression models to estimate 2022 fuel prices using spot price lags, and the reliance on National Energy Plans for 2030 projections. It specifically notes adjusted assumptions for Indonesia and the use of regional averages for countries with missing 2022 trade data, including Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, and Viet Nam.

• To estimate the amount of fossil fuel saved by solar electricity generation, Ember uses a counterfactual scenario assuming solar replaced the cheapest form of fossil-fuel based generation (coal, gas, or oil) for each country independently. A specific exception is made for Indonesia, where the model assumes solar replaced oil first, followed by the cheapest fossil-fuel based generation, based on guidance from PLN and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
• Avoided costs for the first half of 2022 are based on actual power generation data from Ember's Data Explorer, while potential avoided costs for 2030 are based on target solar generation figures found in the National Energy Plans of the respective countries.
• Because 2022-H1 trade data was unavailable for Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, and Viet Nam at the time of writing, Ember used average fuel prices for the region for these countries to account for unusually high prices in early 2022 and capped commodity pricing using the highest observed regional prices to prevent model drift.
• Ember estimates the prices of displaced fossil fuel trades in 2022 using linear regression models that correlate historical prices with average monthly spot prices and lags for Newcastle coal futures, Asian LNG, TTF gas, and Brent crude oil.

APA

Ember (2022). The Sunny Side of Asia. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-sunny-side-of-asia

Chicago

Ember. The Sunny Side of Asia. 2022. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-sunny-side-of-asia.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=The Sunny Side of Asia |date=10 November 2022 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-sunny-side-of-asia |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2022sunny, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{The Sunny Side of Asia}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-sunny-side-of-asia}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }