The Sunny Side of Asia

The document outlines the methodology for calculating the amount of fossil fuels displaced by solar energy and the associated avoided costs. It describes the use of Ember's electricity datasets, IEA thermal efficiency and calorific value data, and UN Comtrade trade data to build linear regression models for fuel pricing. The analysis assumes solar replaces the cheapest fossil fuel generation in each country, with a specific exception for Indonesia where oil is replaced first.

• To estimate fuel savings, the report assumes solar energy replaces the cheapest form of fossil-fuel based generation (coal, gas, or oil) for each country independently, though Indonesia is treated differently by assuming solar replaces oil first.
• Fuel price estimates for 2022 are derived from linear regression models linking historical prices to average monthly spot prices for Brent crude oil, TTF gas, Asian LNG, and Newcastle coal futures.
• Because 2022-H1 trade data was unavailable for Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, and Viet Nam at the time of writing, the report used average fuel prices for the region to account for the high prices of that period.
• The methodology utilizes thermal efficiency data from IEA World Energy Balances and Net Calorific Values (NCV) from IEA World Energy Statistics, specifically using bituminous coal and diesel oil (44.6 MJ/kg) as the assumed fuels.

APA

Ember (2022). The Sunny Side of Asia. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-sunny-side-of-asia

Chicago

Ember. The Sunny Side of Asia. 2022. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-sunny-side-of-asia.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=The Sunny Side of Asia |date=10 November 2022 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-sunny-side-of-asia |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2022sunny, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{The Sunny Side of Asia}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-sunny-side-of-asia}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }