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The research utilizes a 25-year panel dataset from Machadinho, Brazil, to analyze the relationship between household demographics and land use choices during frontier development. The study finds that as frontiers integrate into markets, successful settlers are those who diversify their livelihood strategies, moving from subsistence agriculture to a mix of on- and off-farm activities. This diversification prevents long-term deprivation and eventually makes land use choices independent of household demographic dynamics in advanced stages of development.

The LUCIA project developed a computational Agent-Based Model (MBA) to simulate malaria transmission by accounting for the interactions between mosquitoes, parasites, and humans. Validated in regions of Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru, the model demonstrates that land-use changes—such as deforestation, mining, and agricultural expansion—combined with climate factors like river flooding, increase human vulnerability to malaria. Findings indicate that risk is higher for isolated homes on the outskirts of populations compared to central areas. The research suggests that managing larval breeding sites within 200 meters of populations can eliminate disease transmission, and notes that Ecuador has already modified its mining policies as a result.