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Uncertain Futures: The Changing Global Context of the European Arctic
The report details a workshop in Pajala, Sweden, where local stakeholders and researchers co-created four future narratives for the region based on global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Participants identified climate change, national-local power relations, and international security as primary drivers of change. The resulting narratives explore a range of futures, from a sustainable 'Green Road' focused on circular economies and bio-production to a 'Rocky Road' characterized by resurgent nationalism and state withdrawal from municipal welfare. The study emphasizes the interconnection between local Arctic conditions—such as mining and reindeer herding—and global trends in migration, resource demand, and climate change.
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Document type: Research paper